Swan Song
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19 (8 on the archive and 11 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 9
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2026-08-10 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2026-06-16 | | Won |
| 957 | 1084 | 32% | 2023-08-14 | | Won |
| 1046 | 1129 | 38% | 2023-04-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2022-05-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2021-02-02 | | Won |
| 872 | 1102 | 21% | 2020-11-02 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1147 | 27% | 2020-02-27 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 984.8 vs 1069.5 has a 38.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).