Fresh Grist
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (15 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (Chinese): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 953 | 878 | 61% | 2025-12-30 | Lost |
| 944 | 958 | 48% | 2024-10-07 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1084 | 54% | 2023-07-16 | Lost |
| 971 | 944 | 54% | 2023-03-24 | Won |
| 1098 | 1074 | 53% | 2022-12-17 | Lost |
| 998 | 1084 | 38% | 2022-05-20 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1010 | 67% | 2022-04-21 | Lost |
| 944 | 1063 | 34% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1261 | 731 | 95% | 2022-02-20 | Won |
| 1090 | 1073 | 52% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 1037 | 50% | 2021-11-28 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1135 | 56% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1100 | 57% | 2021-10-12 | Won |
| 1261 | 1219 | 56% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1118 | 40% | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1078.6 vs 1033.9 has a 56.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).