Fresh Grist
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (17 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (Chinese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 940 | 873 | 60% | 2025-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1317 | 1242 | 61% | 2025-08-05 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2024-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1053 | 42% | 2023-07-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2023-03-24 | | Won |
| 1150 | 1078 | 60% | 2022-12-17 | | Lost |
| 939 | 1176 | 20% | 2022-05-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2022-04-21 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2022-04-10 | | Lost |
| 1291 | 729 | 96% | 2022-02-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1023 | 47% | 2022-01-10 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2021-11-28 | | Lost |
| 1178 | 1132 | 57% | 2021-11-19 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1101 | 55% | 2021-10-12 | | Won |
| 1291 | 1343 | 43% | 2021-06-19 | | Lost |
| 1291 | 1343 | 43% | 2021-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1091.9 vs 1070.6 has a 53.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).