Fresh Grist
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (17 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (Chinese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 885 | 918 | 45% | 2025-12-30 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1263 | 57% | 2025-08-05 | Lost |
| 964 | 988 | 47% | 2024-10-07 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1041 | 51% | 2023-07-16 | Lost |
| 971 | 964 | 51% | 2023-03-24 | Won |
| 1142 | 1078 | 59% | 2022-12-17 | Lost |
| 952 | 1107 | 29% | 2022-05-20 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1051 | 62% | 2022-04-21 | Lost |
| 964 | 1202 | 20% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1225 | 746 | 94% | 2022-02-20 | Won |
| 1091 | 1003 | 62% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 1040 | 50% | 2021-11-28 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1135 | 56% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1101 | 47% | 2021-10-12 | Won |
| 1225 | 1342 | 34% | 2021-06-19 | Lost |
| 1225 | 1342 | 34% | 2021-06-17 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1039 | 47% | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1085.8 vs 1080 has a 50.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).