Hot Toddy
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (17 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 20
Defender wins (British/American): 26
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (British/American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2025-03-16 | | Won |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2025-02-09 | | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-03-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1003 | 50% | 2023-11-05 | | Won |
| 1149 | 1000 | 70% | 2023-10-03 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2023-08-16 | | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2023-05-24 | | Won |
| 1012 | 1032 | 47% | 2023-04-26 | | Won |
| 938 | 1000 | 41% | 2023-03-26 | | Won |
| 981 | 987 | 49% | 2023-03-25 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1292 | 21% | 2023-03-17 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1084 | 47% | 2023-03-02 | | Won |
| 1033 | 1026 | 51% | 2023-02-11 | A | Lost |
| 861 | 1000 | 31% | 2023-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1089 | 1111 | 47% | 2023-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2023-01-13 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2023-01-12 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1028.1 vs 1046.1 has a 47.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).