Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (9 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 20
Defender wins (Australian): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 908 | 908 | 50% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1158 | 30% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1009 | 934 | 61% | 2024-01-27 | Won |
| 982 | 1007 | 46% | 2024-01-07 | Won |
| 1089 | 1016 | 60% | 2023-12-02 | Lost |
| 1038 | 882 | 71% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1136 | 1053 | 62% | 2023-11-04 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1141 | 54% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1189 | 1005 | 74% | 2023-08-20 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1058.8 vs 1011.6 has a 56.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).