Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40 (9 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 21
Defender wins (Australian): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 908 | 908 | 50% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1159 | 29% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1005 | 940 | 59% | 2024-01-27 | Won |
| 981 | 1022 | 44% | 2024-01-07 | Won |
| 1052 | 1018 | 55% | 2023-12-02 | Lost |
| 979 | 879 | 64% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1127 | 1058 | 60% | 2023-11-04 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1154 | 53% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1177 | 891 | 84% | 2023-08-20 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1045.6 vs 1003.2 has a 56.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).