Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (10 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 20
Defender wins (Australian): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1034 | 1116 | 38% | 2025-12-15 | Lost |
| 913 | 913 | 50% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1121 | 36% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1019 | 966 | 58% | 2024-01-27 | Won |
| 979 | 1022 | 44% | 2024-01-07 | Won |
| 1029 | 1020 | 51% | 2023-12-02 | Lost |
| 962 | 879 | 62% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1174 | 1054 | 67% | 2023-11-04 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1144 | 42% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1206 | 1024 | 74% | 2023-08-20 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1042.1 vs 1025.9 has a 52.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).