Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (11 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 22
Defender wins (Australian): 25
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1021 | 1108 | 38% | 2025-12-15 | Lost |
| 913 | 926 | 48% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1120 | 43% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1068 | 966 | 64% | 2024-01-27 | Won |
| 979 | 1022 | 44% | 2024-01-07 | Won |
| 969 | 1034 | 41% | 2023-12-02 | Lost |
| 928 | 891 | 55% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1002 | 1263 | 18% | 2023-11-11 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1079 | 61% | 2023-11-04 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1228 | 27% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1212 | 906 | 85% | 2023-08-20 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1033.8 vs 1049.4 has a 47.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).