Buckley's Chance
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 45 (11 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 21
Defender wins (Australian): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1034 | 1119 | 38% | 2025-12-15 | Lost |
| 913 | 904 | 51% | 2025-04-26 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1119 | 42% | 2024-03-01 | Won |
| 1063 | 967 | 63% | 2024-01-27 | Won |
| 979 | 1022 | 44% | 2024-01-07 | Won |
| 1024 | 1019 | 51% | 2023-12-02 | Lost |
| 962 | 879 | 62% | 2023-12-02 | Won |
| 1002 | 1283 | 17% | 2023-11-11 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1078 | 61% | 2023-11-04 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1200 | 30% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1260 | 980 | 83% | 2023-08-20 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1046.5 vs 1051.8 has a 49.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).