Crossing Chaos
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (22 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (French / Belgian): 33
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (French / Belgian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2026-08-21 | | Lost |
| 1026 | 1033 | 49% | 2026-07-19 | D | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2026-07-15 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2026-05-28 | | Won |
| 940 | 1016 | 39% | 2026-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2026-03-27 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2026-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 914 | 62% | 2026-03-23 | | Won |
| 904 | 1157 | 19% | 2026-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1292 | 16% | 2026-03-14 | | Lost |
| 920 | 1000 | 39% | 2026-03-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1062 | 41% | 2026-03-13 | | Won |
| 1189 | 1000 | 75% | 2026-03-13 | | Lost |
| 1053 | 887 | 72% | 2026-03-06 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1010 | 44% | 2026-03-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1189 | 25% | 2026-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2026-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1111 | 1089 | 53% | 2025-12-14 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2025-11-22 | | Lost |
| 1163 | 1086 | 61% | 2025-10-10 | | Won |
| 1162 | 861 | 85% | 2025-01-25 | | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1044.6 vs 1045.3 has a 49.9% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).