The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 246 (46 on the archive and 200 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 105
Defender wins (Russian): 141
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2025-04-17 | Won |
| 993 | 962 | 54% | 2025-03-15 | Won |
| 930 | 1123 | 25% | 2025-01-30 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 936 | 931 | 51% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
| 931 | 936 | 49% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1109 | 45% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
| 962 | 1010 | 43% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
| 879 | 962 | 38% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
| 940 | 974 | 45% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
| 931 | 1010 | 39% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1015 | 52% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1242 | 22% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
| 1183 | 1151 | 55% | 2017-10-08 | Lost |
| 1123 | 951 | 73% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
| 962 | 1042 | 39% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
| 959 | 962 | 50% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
| 1135 | 897 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
| 958 | 1242 | 16% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1242 | 962 | 83% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 1123 | 27% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
| 962 | 975 | 48% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 944 | 1109 | 28% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
| 951 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
| 1067 | 1049 | 53% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 962 | 948 | 52% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
| 1206 | 1039 | 72% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
| 907 | 854 | 58% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
| 962 | 995 | 45% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
| 1286 | 1419 | 32% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
| 920 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
| 962 | 959 | 50% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
| 1055 | 1009 | 57% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
| 1067 | 982 | 62% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
| 1174 | 1130 | 56% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
| 1091 | 1117 | 46% | 2002-03-29 | Lost |
| 940 | 1010 | 40% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
| 800 | 1151 | 12% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1196 | 881 | 86% | 1994-04-30 | Lost |
| 1042 | 984 | 58% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
| 1068 | 984 | 62% | 1990-04-25 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1000 | 66% | | Lost |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1024.4 vs 1031.2 has a 49.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).