The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 244 (46 on the archive and 198 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 104
Defender wins (Russian): 140
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2025-04-17 | Won |
| 994 | 934 | 59% | 2025-03-15 | Won |
| 954 | 1203 | 19% | 2025-01-30 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 939 | 951 | 48% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
| 951 | 939 | 52% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1096 | 47% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
| 934 | 1010 | 39% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
| 879 | 934 | 42% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
| 890 | 974 | 38% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
| 951 | 1010 | 42% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1022 | 50% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1256 | 19% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
| 1183 | 1152 | 54% | 2017-10-08 | Lost |
| 1203 | 951 | 81% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
| 937 | 1061 | 33% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
| 960 | 937 | 53% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
| 1135 | 898 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
| 960 | 1256 | 15% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1256 | 937 | 86% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 1203 | 19% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
| 934 | 973 | 44% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 942 | 1096 | 29% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
| 951 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
| 1067 | 1049 | 53% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 934 | 949 | 48% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
| 1154 | 998 | 71% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
| 927 | 854 | 60% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
| 937 | 1009 | 40% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
| 1286 | 1416 | 32% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
| 920 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
| 937 | 960 | 47% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
| 1067 | 986 | 61% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
| 1127 | 1130 | 50% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
| 1123 | 1078 | 56% | 2002-03-29 | Lost |
| 940 | 1028 | 38% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
| 800 | 1152 | 12% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1156 | 881 | 83% | 1994-04-30 | Lost |
| 1061 | 985 | 61% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
| 1063 | 984 | 61% | 1990-04-25 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1000 | 64% | | Lost |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1018.6 vs 1033.4 has a 47.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).