The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 250 (49 on the archive and 202 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 107
Defender wins (Russian): 143
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1011 | 837 | 73% | 2026-04-25 | | Won |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2026-04-18 | A | Lost |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2025-04-17 | | Won |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2025-03-15 | | Won |
| 986 | 1134 | 30% | 2025-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2024-01-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2022-02-13 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2022-01-26 | | Won |
| 1073 | 1108 | 45% | 2021-08-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2020-08-28 | | Lost |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2019-01-10 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1000 | 41% | 2018-11-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2018-05-30 | | Won |
| 981 | 1010 | 46% | 2018-02-19 | | Lost |
| 1085 | 966 | 66% | 2017-10-20 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1284 | 18% | 2017-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2017-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 950 | 74% | 2017-09-23 | | Won |
| 1119 | 1075 | 56% | 2017-07-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2017-06-30 | | Won |
| 1135 | 898 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1284 | 16% | 2016-06-25 | | Lost |
| 1284 | 1119 | 72% | 2014-09-01 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1134 | 26% | 2014-07-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 994 | 51% | 2014-06-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2013-04-29 | | Won |
| 951 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | | Won |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2012-10-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2012-09-01 | | Won |
| 1194 | 1022 | 73% | 2012-07-16 | | Lost |
| 921 | 1000 | 39% | 2012-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1119 | 1000 | 66% | 2008-12-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2008-02-10 | | Lost |
| 915 | 1000 | 38% | 2007-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1119 | 1000 | 66% | 2007-02-17 | | Won |
| 832 | 1000 | 28% | 2006-06-22 | | Won |
| 1001 | 1058 | 42% | 2005-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2004-10-10 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1122 | 56% | 2004-08-21 | | Won |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2002-03-29 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1059 | 34% | 1998-01-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 1997-11-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 1997-04-01 | | Won |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 1994-04-30 | | Lost |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 1992-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 1990-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Lost |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1033.1 vs 1043 has a 48.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).