The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 247 (47 on the archive and 200 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 106
Defender wins (Russian): 141
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2025-04-17 | Won |
| 993 | 980 | 52% | 2025-03-15 | Won |
| 975 | 1058 | 38% | 2025-01-30 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 937 | 1000 | 41% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
| 1000 | 937 | 59% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1107 | 45% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
| 980 | 1010 | 46% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
| 879 | 980 | 36% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
| 941 | 974 | 45% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1256 | 21% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1140 | 56% | 2017-10-08 | Lost |
| 1058 | 950 | 65% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
| 992 | 1049 | 42% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
| 959 | 992 | 45% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
| 1135 | 897 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
| 958 | 1256 | 15% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1256 | 992 | 82% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 1058 | 35% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
| 980 | 975 | 51% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 942 | 1107 | 28% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
| 951 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
| 1071 | 1050 | 53% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 980 | 948 | 55% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
| 1255 | 1068 | 75% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
| 928 | 854 | 60% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
| 992 | 1083 | 37% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
| 1287 | 1423 | 31% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
| 920 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
| 992 | 959 | 55% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
| 1054 | 995 | 58% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 982 | 62% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
| 1173 | 1130 | 56% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
| 1041 | 1109 | 40% | 2002-03-29 | Lost |
| 940 | 1045 | 35% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
| 1149 | 1283 | 32% | 1997-11-09 | Won |
| 800 | 1140 | 12% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1182 | 881 | 85% | 1994-04-30 | Lost |
| 1049 | 984 | 59% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
| 1068 | 984 | 62% | 1990-04-25 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1032 vs 1039.9 has a 48.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).