Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 242 (49 on the archive and 195 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 140
Defender wins (German): 102
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1159 | 904 | 81% | 2026-06-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2024-02-20 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-01-07 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-08-30 | | Lost |
| 907 | 1120 | 23% | 2023-04-22 | | Won |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2020-07-04 | | Won |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2020-07-04 | | Won |
| 803 | 1133 | 13% | 2019-10-17 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1107 | 43% | 2019-07-26 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-05-13 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | | Won |
| 966 | 1085 | 34% | 2016-09-12 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2016-08-21 | | Won |
| 1030 | 981 | 57% | 2016-05-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-12-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2015-08-28 | | Won |
| 1050 | 1038 | 52% | 2014-08-16 | | Won |
| 1062 | 972 | 63% | 2014-06-07 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2014-05-25 | | Lost |
| 808 | 1134 | 13% | 2014-01-18 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 808 | 87% | 2013-12-08 | D | Won |
| 1019 | 1134 | 34% | 2013-10-01 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1066 | 60% | 2013-09-26 | D | Lost |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2013-09-13 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2013-04-28 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2012-12-31 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1155 | 39% | 2012-12-02 | | Lost |
| 951 | 891 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | | Won |
| 951 | 862 | 63% | 2012-11-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2012-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 880 | 67% | 2011-09-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2010-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2009-11-16 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1167 | 28% | 2009-07-30 | | Lost |
| 917 | 1000 | 38% | 2009-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2009-01-01 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2008-05-14 | | Lost |
| 1107 | 1047 | 59% | 2007-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-04-14 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1233 | 36% | 2007-01-05 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1001 | 58% | 2005-01-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 862 | 69% | 2005-01-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1096 | 37% | 2004-11-18 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2004-08-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1096 | 37% | 2004-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2002-09-07 | | Won |
| 992 | 1096 | 35% | 2002-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 1999-11-23 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 1994-04-10 | | Lost |
Attacking (28 wins) average ELOs: 1029.7 vs 1027.5 has a 50.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).