Confusion Reigns
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 241 (47 on the archive and 194 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 138
Defender wins (German): 101
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2024-02-20 | Won |
| 1036 | 990 | 57% | 2024-01-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1009 | 46% | 2023-08-30 | Lost |
| 918 | 1107 | 25% | 2023-04-22 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2020-07-04 | Won |
| 829 | 1189 | 11% | 2019-10-17 | Lost |
| 1020 | 964 | 58% | 2019-07-26 | Won |
| 1032 | 1035 | 50% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1226 | 1008 | 78% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1033 | 1010 | 53% | 2016-09-12 | Lost |
| 974 | 764 | 77% | 2016-08-21 | Won |
| 1029 | 909 | 67% | 2016-05-07 | Won |
| 1127 | 1114 | 52% | 2015-12-10 | Won |
| 985 | 1020 | 45% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
| 1046 | 1037 | 51% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
| 1118 | 877 | 80% | 2014-06-07 | Won |
| 1096 | 942 | 71% | 2014-05-25 | Lost |
| 806 | 1181 | 10% | 2014-01-18 | Lost |
| 1181 | 806 | 90% | 2013-12-08 | Won |
| 1019 | 1181 | 28% | 2013-10-01 | Won |
| 1181 | 1062 | 66% | 2013-09-26 | Lost |
| 956 | 1062 | 35% | 2013-09-13 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1002 | 57% | 2013-04-28 | Won |
| 1050 | 1002 | 57% | 2012-12-31 | Won |
| 1044 | 1153 | 35% | 2012-12-02 | Lost |
| 951 | 890 | 59% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 951 | 861 | 63% | 2012-11-13 | Won |
| 1002 | 1050 | 43% | 2012-10-01 | Lost |
| 962 | 881 | 61% | 2011-09-14 | Won |
| 1177 | 1041 | 69% | 2010-03-18 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-11-16 | Won |
| 1006 | 1115 | 35% | 2009-07-30 | Lost |
| 920 | 1138 | 22% | 2009-02-27 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1036 | 48% | 2009-01-01 | Lost |
| 946 | 764 | 74% | 2008-05-14 | Lost |
| 964 | 1047 | 38% | 2007-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1026 | 47% | 2007-04-14 | Won |
| 1133 | 1228 | 37% | 2007-01-05 | Lost |
| 1048 | 995 | 58% | 2005-01-15 | Won |
| 935 | 862 | 60% | 2005-01-14 | Won |
| 1009 | 1095 | 38% | 2004-11-18 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1034 | 54% | 2004-08-10 | Won |
| 1082 | 1095 | 48% | 2004-06-17 | Lost |
| 1115 | 987 | 68% | 2002-09-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1095 | 39% | 2002-06-29 | Lost |
| 1189 | 911 | 83% | 1994-04-10 | Lost |
Attacking (26 wins) average ELOs: 1029.4 vs 1011.3 has a 52.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).