Lost Opportunities
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38
Attacker wins (German): 21
Defender wins (American): 13
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (German): 3
Defender wins (American): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 1007 | 46% | 2023-12-11 | Won |
| 1234 | 829 | 91% | 2023-11-27 | Won |
| 1045 | 999 | 57% | 2023-11-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1107 | 54% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 1169 | 1127 | 56% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2020-12-10 | Won |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2020-12-10 | Won |
| 997 | 916 | 61% | 2020-06-24 | Won |
| 1009 | 980 | 54% | 2020-01-10 | Lost |
| 1234 | 939 | 85% | 2019-12-20 | Won |
| 1152 | 909 | 80% | 2017-08-26 | Won |
| 1010 | 1143 | 32% | 2017-02-13 | Lost |
| 1045 | 999 | 57% | 2016-11-15 | Won |
| 1027 | 1289 | 18% | 2016-08-27 | Lost |
| 985 | 986 | 50% | 2016-01-08 | Won |
| 1010 | 1016 | 49% | 2015-02-19 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1094 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1193 | 44% | 2013-09-19 | Won |
| 873 | 907 | 45% | 2013-01-31 | Won |
| 951 | 890 | 59% | 2012-12-02 | Won |
| 951 | 861 | 63% | 2012-12-02 | Won |
| 1040 | 1073 | 45% | 2012-03-15 | Won |
| 920 | 976 | 42% | 2011-12-29 | Won |
| 967 | 996 | 46% | 2010-06-05 | Lost |
| 1060 | 989 | 60% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
| 1251 | 997 | 81% | 2009-06-06 | Won |
| 920 | 1010 | 37% | 2008-09-16 | Lost |
| 1010 | 946 | 59% | 2007-04-10 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-10-05 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1010 | 70% | 2004-06-16 | Won |
| 1037 | 1066 | 46% | 2001-10-01 | Won |
| 987 | 1115 | 32% | 2001-03-11 | Lost |
| 1079 | 929 | 70% | 1998-10-08 | Won |
| 1075 | 1074 | 50% | 1998-08-14 | Lost |
| 1079 | 929 | 70% | 1998-07-05 | Tied |
| 1110 | 1234 | 33% | 1994-08-01 | Won |
| 985 | 986 | 50% | 1992-02-05 | Won |
| 1085 | 1085 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1038.7 vs 1014.3 has a 53.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).