Gavin's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19 (12 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 13
Defender wins (German): 5
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1122 | 1122 | 50% | 2025-06-01 | Won |
| 1023 | 1021 | 50% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 987 | 903 | 62% | 2016-11-06 | Won |
| 1066 | 1228 | 28% | 2014-05-30 | Lost |
| 889 | 951 | 41% | 2013-11-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 966 | 63% | 2012-12-26 | Won |
| 1037 | 1085 | 43% | 2012-07-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1016 | 68% | 2009-09-21 | Tied |
| 1094 | 1016 | 61% | 2006-12-28 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-10-29 | Lost |
| 1189 | 959 | 79% | 2005-08-19 | Lost |
| 1248 | 1110 | 69% | 1994-08-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1057.8 vs 1017.4 has a 55.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).