The Taking of Takrouna
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 159 (21 on the archive and 138 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 64
Defender wins (Italian): 95
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 916 | 947 | 46% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1020 | 52% | 2022-02-15 | Won |
| 1013 | 986 | 54% | 2020-04-11 | Lost |
| 949 | 991 | 44% | 2018-09-16 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1052 | 43% | 2018-07-27 | Lost |
| 1018 | 927 | 63% | 2016-11-11 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1102 | 40% | 2015-07-14 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1144 | 75% | 2014-12-07 | Lost |
| 1096 | 942 | 71% | 2013-12-01 | Won |
| 927 | 1007 | 39% | 2013-05-14 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1057 | 43% | 2013-01-01 | Won |
| 1041 | 1092 | 43% | 2010-05-01 | Won |
| 991 | 920 | 60% | 2008-08-27 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1035 | 64% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1056 | 52% | 2003-02-07 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1070 | 50% | 1999-06-14 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1068 | 50% | 1999-05-31 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1034 | 65% | 1998-05-10 | Lost |
| 1068 | 984 | 62% | 1994-04-25 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1058 | 49% | 1991-08-02 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1044.8 vs 1022.3 has a 53.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).