Strangers in a Strange Land
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 319 (62 on the archive and 257 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 170
Defender wins (German): 148
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 1117 | 50% | 2026-01-24 | Won |
| 950 | 1038 | 38% | 2025-09-21 | Lost |
| 915 | 913 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Lost |
| 890 | 891 | 50% | 2024-04-21 | Won |
| 940 | 992 | 43% | 2022-08-31 | Won |
| 1027 | 1195 | 28% | 2021-06-16 | Lost |
| 800 | 928 | 32% | 2020-10-05 | Won |
| 1077 | 1099 | 47% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 910 | 1102 | 25% | 2020-08-12 | Won |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2020-08-03 | Tied |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2020-05-09 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1027 | 46% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1167 | 54% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1085 | 1042 | 56% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1085 | 1027 | 58% | 2020-03-05 | Won |
| 995 | 1047 | 43% | 2020-02-28 | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2018-09-05 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2017-11-23 | Won |
| 898 | 919 | 47% | 2017-08-08 | Won |
| 1028 | 1038 | 49% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 958 | 951 | 51% | 2017-03-21 | Won |
| 951 | 958 | 49% | 2017-03-04 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1217 | 33% | 2016-12-07 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1168 | 48% | 2015-11-16 | Won |
| 1146 | 961 | 74% | 2015-06-14 | Won |
| 1011 | 1244 | 21% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1036 | 998 | 55% | 2014-08-02 | Won |
| 1066 | 1160 | 37% | 2014-06-01 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 1004 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 1156 | 1198 | 44% | 2012-10-07 | Won |
| 983 | 996 | 48% | 2012-09-23 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 1221 | 945 | 83% | 2012-08-04 | Won |
| 1107 | 1069 | 55% | 2011-10-09 | Won |
| 950 | 1004 | 42% | 2010-01-21 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1027 | 66% | 2009-11-27 | Won |
| 971 | 1146 | 27% | 2009-09-29 | Won |
| 989 | 1027 | 45% | 2009-02-26 | Lost |
| 943 | 1233 | 16% | 2008-11-01 | Won |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2008-01-21 | Won |
| 1046 | 1059 | 48% | 2006-02-10 | Lost |
| 907 | 994 | 38% | 2004-09-19 | Won |
| 1137 | 1063 | 60% | 2004-09-19 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1058 | 46% | 2004-07-25 | Won |
| 1060 | 1071 | 48% | 2003-03-15 | Won |
| 1031 | 1046 | 48% | 2002-10-13 | Won |
| 983 | 827 | 71% | 2002-06-01 | Lost |
| 1187 | 1060 | 68% | 2001-05-06 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1100 | 55% | 2001-01-26 | Lost |
| 985 | 1074 | 37% | 2001-01-26 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1083 | 43% | 2000-08-26 | Won |
| 974 | 948 | 54% | 1999-12-27 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1219 | 56% | 1999-07-18 | Won |
| 952 | 1344 | 9% | 1999-06-25 | Won |
| 897 | 1028 | 32% | 1999-01-23 | Lost |
| 1344 | 919 | 92% | 1998-12-27 | Lost |
| 1100 | 866 | 79% | 1995-11-08 | Won |
| 1102 | 1129 | 46% | 1993-10-01 | Won |
| 1063 | 953 | 65% | 1993-08-07 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (34 wins) average ELOs: 1042 vs 1048 has a 49.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).