An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 121 (22 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 71
Defender wins (German): 48
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1017 | 924 | 63% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
1175 | 1032 | 69% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
961 | 892 | 60% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
1008 | 1008 | 50% | 2021-01-18 | Lost |
1045 | 974 | 60% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
978 | 977 | 50% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
856 | 1198 | 12% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
1037 | 1104 | 40% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
1175 | 966 | 77% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
1055 | 1104 | 43% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
1087 | 1225 | 31% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
954 | 939 | 52% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
952 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
1030 | 1036 | 49% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
1151 | 1037 | 66% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
1095 | 1149 | 42% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
1227 | 1180 | 57% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
928 | 1030 | 36% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
1083 | 870 | 77% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
1142 | 1227 | 38% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1043.4 vs 1039 has a 50.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).