An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 133 (34 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 62
Defender wins (German): 68
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Polish): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1070 | 1070 | 50% | 2025-10-17 | Won |
| 1084 | 982 | 64% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 1070 | 864 | 77% | 2025-01-15 | Won |
| 937 | 949 | 48% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
| 1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
| 1093 | 1030 | 59% | 2022-01-18 | Won |
| 1110 | 935 | 73% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
| 890 | 888 | 50% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1021 | 50% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
| 993 | 964 | 54% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 858 | 1133 | 17% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1035 | 1203 | 28% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
| 1233 | 1065 | 72% | 2018-08-07 | Lost |
| 1254 | 960 | 84% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1080 | 1093 | 48% | 2016-03-30 | Won |
| 1053 | 1203 | 30% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
| 967 | 987 | 47% | 2014-02-20 | Won |
| 1051 | 1226 | 27% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
| 953 | 939 | 52% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
| 1030 | 1035 | 49% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
| 1151 | 1041 | 65% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1152 | 35% | 2011-09-23 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1177 | 46% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
| 1228 | 1180 | 57% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
| 929 | 1035 | 35% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1113 | 51% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1193 | 1017 | 73% | 2001-03-01 | Won |
| 1032 | 1152 | 33% | 2000-10-06 | Won |
| 1152 | 970 | 74% | 1999-10-08 | Won |
| 1078 | 1123 | 44% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 1028 | 872 | 71% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
| 1127 | 1233 | 35% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1057.9 vs 1047 has a 51.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).