The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1128 | 1158 | 46% | 2024-12-24 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 868 | 990 | 33% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 1032 | 945 | 62% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1000 | 986 | 52% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 962 | 967 | 49% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 950 | 998 | 43% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1085 | 1017 | 60% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1135 | 36% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 999 | 1029 | 46% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 939 | 943 | 49% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 935 | 1085 | 30% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1207 | 957 | 81% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1229 | 1130 | 64% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1135 | 43% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1207 | 38% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1047 | 59% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1144 | 881 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 1113 | 1233 | 33% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 899 | 885 | 52% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1034.7 vs 1033.8 has a 50.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).