Point of the Sword
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 115 (55 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British / Canadian): 68
Defender wins (German): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1144 | 30% | 2025-06-26 | | Lost |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2025-02-07 | | Lost |
| 976 | 999 | 47% | 2024-08-14 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2024-06-14 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2023-03-05 | | Won |
| 1077 | 909 | 72% | 2022-06-12 | | Won |
| 907 | 996 | 37% | 2022-03-21 | | Lost |
| 959 | 950 | 51% | 2022-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1152 | 34% | 2022-03-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2022-03-02 | | Won |
| 1024 | 874 | 70% | 2022-02-19 | | Won |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2021-12-14 | | Lost |
| 1020 | 1000 | 53% | 2021-09-04 | | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-02-15 | | Won |
| 987 | 1075 | 38% | 2020-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2020-08-02 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1143 | 36% | 2020-06-28 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2020-04-24 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1108 | 36% | 2020-03-26 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-03-24 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1088 | 49% | 2019-08-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2019-04-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2018-07-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2018-03-23 | | Won |
| 1099 | 1000 | 64% | 2017-09-01 | | Won |
| 901 | 1156 | 19% | 2017-06-11 | | Won |
| 850 | 1123 | 17% | 2017-04-15 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1021 | 49% | 2017-03-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2016-01-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1089 | 37% | 2016-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2015-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1038 | 49% | 2014-12-18 | | Won |
| 1075 | 1057 | 53% | 2014-12-16 | | Won |
| 1010 | 1000 | 51% | 2014-06-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2014-04-28 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2013-12-31 | | Won |
| 1053 | 1075 | 47% | 2013-10-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2013-10-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2013-04-12 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1431 | 7% | 2012-11-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2012-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2010-11-28 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1019 | 52% | 2010-01-09 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2009-07-12 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2008-10-08 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 920 | 79% | 2008-10-01 | | Won |
| 1144 | 881 | 82% | 2008-09-27 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1233 | 36% | 2007-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2006-11-04 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2004-03-28 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 1999-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 1999-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 1996-07-31 | | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1026.1 vs 1030.9 has a 49.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).