First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 9
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 962 | 53% | 2025-08-22 | Won |
| 1109 | 1145 | 45% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1010 | 987 | 53% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1279 | 18% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 979 | 985 | 49% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 986 | 1169 | 26% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1175 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 1029 | 1014 | 52% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 948 | 986 | 45% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 966 | 65% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 975 | 1044 | 40% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1009 | 78% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1038 | 1138 | 36% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1279 | 25% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 998 | 1016 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1093 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1100 | 978 | 67% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 985 | 38% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 894 | 1102 | 23% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1085 | 1138 | 42% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1038.1 vs 1070 has a 45.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).