First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 9
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 969 | 982 | 48% | 2025-08-22 | Won |
| 1107 | 1143 | 45% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1030 | 987 | 56% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1275 | 20% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
| 979 | 1065 | 38% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
| 969 | 1217 | 19% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1175 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
| 1008 | 1034 | 46% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
| 948 | 969 | 47% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 953 | 67% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1009 | 78% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
| 1038 | 1188 | 30% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1275 | 25% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
| 998 | 1016 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1093 | 49% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1079 | 978 | 64% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1065 | 28% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
| 885 | 1107 | 22% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
| 1122 | 1138 | 48% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1107 | 904 | 76% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1039 vs 1079.8 has a 44.17% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).