First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (20 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 16
Defender wins (German): 41
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1115 | 1145 | 46% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
937 | 973 | 45% | 2022-10-26 | Lost |
937 | 1175 | 20% | 2022-09-09 | Lost |
962 | 1055 | 37% | 2022-05-10 | Lost |
993 | 904 | 63% | 2022-01-16 | Lost |
1159 | 1159 | 50% | 2021-05-26 | Won |
1026 | 993 | 55% | 2021-05-05 | Won |
924 | 993 | 40% | 2020-10-09 | Lost |
1080 | 920 | 72% | 2020-05-20 | Lost |
987 | 1027 | 44% | 2019-03-01 | Lost |
1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2015-04-07 | Won |
1016 | 1104 | 38% | 2015-02-08 | Lost |
1085 | 1175 | 37% | 2014-12-29 | Lost |
999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-07-15 | Lost |
1087 | 1183 | 37% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
1008 | 975 | 55% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
900 | 1055 | 29% | 2013-02-13 | Lost |
959 | 1090 | 32% | 2012-05-15 | Lost |
1037 | 1186 | 30% | 2010-04-25 | Won |
1090 | 905 | 74% | 2007-11-14 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1026.4 vs 1051.7 has a 46.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).