First Crisis at Army Group North
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 60 (22 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 18
Defender wins (German): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2025-08-22 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2022-11-22 | | Won |
| 989 | 987 | 50% | 2022-10-26 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1259 | 17% | 2022-09-09 | | Lost |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2022-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 1000 | 73% | 2021-05-26 | | Won |
| 964 | 1075 | 35% | 2021-05-05 | | Won |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-10-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 944 | 58% | 2020-05-20 | | Lost |
| 1137 | 996 | 69% | 2019-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 983 | 81% | 2015-04-07 | | Won |
| 1033 | 1097 | 41% | 2015-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1259 | 18% | 2014-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2014-07-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2014-07-02 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-02-24 | | Lost |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-02-13 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1103 | 31% | 2012-05-15 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2010-04-25 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2008-08-22 | | Won |
| 1103 | 904 | 76% | 2007-11-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2004-04-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1033.8 vs 1040.4 has a 49.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).