The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 113 (28 on the archive and 85 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 64
Defender wins (Japanese): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 834 | 999 | 28% | 2025-10-14 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1292 | 24% | 2025-09-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 864 | 69% | 2024-12-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2024-12-01 | | Lost |
| 892 | 1077 | 26% | 2021-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2020-11-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2019-12-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2018-03-06 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1120 | 36% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2017-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1005 | 49% | 2016-12-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1020 | 47% | 2016-02-18 | | Lost |
| 972 | 1062 | 37% | 2015-10-24 | | Won |
| 1062 | 972 | 63% | 2015-10-17 | | Won |
| 1233 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | | Won |
| 1071 | 834 | 80% | 2013-01-19 | | Won |
| 1071 | 834 | 80% | 2013-01-12 | | Won |
| 834 | 1071 | 20% | 2012-12-27 | | Won |
| 834 | 1071 | 20% | 2012-12-20 | | Won |
| 1103 | 904 | 76% | 2009-06-25 | | Won |
| 898 | 1020 | 33% | 2005-04-13 | | Won |
| 1344 | 1069 | 83% | 2004-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2003-12-18 | | Won |
| 1164 | 1159 | 51% | 2002-07-26 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1010 | 65% | 2000-12-29 | | Won |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2000-05-24 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2000-05-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 1988-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1023 vs 1025.8 has a 49.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).