The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 109 (25 on the archive and 84 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 55
Defender wins (Japanese): 54
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 906 | 879 | 54% | 2024-12-17 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1003 | 54% | 2024-12-01 | Lost |
| 920 | 1078 | 29% | 2021-01-24 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1099 | 55% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-12-21 | Won |
| 1032 | 1207 | 27% | 2018-03-06 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1110 | 40% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1110 | 37% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1024 | 51% | 2016-12-20 | Won |
| 983 | 983 | 50% | 2016-02-18 | Lost |
| 900 | 1114 | 23% | 2015-10-24 | Won |
| 1114 | 900 | 77% | 2015-10-17 | Won |
| 1228 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | Won |
| 1066 | 895 | 73% | 2013-01-19 | Won |
| 1066 | 895 | 73% | 2013-01-12 | Won |
| 895 | 1066 | 27% | 2012-12-27 | Won |
| 895 | 1066 | 27% | 2012-12-20 | Won |
| 1087 | 905 | 74% | 2009-06-25 | Won |
| 846 | 983 | 31% | 2005-04-13 | Won |
| 1082 | 1067 | 52% | 2003-12-18 | Won |
| 1121 | 1217 | 37% | 2002-07-26 | Won |
| 1110 | 1000 | 65% | 2000-12-29 | Won |
| 1082 | 1044 | 55% | 2000-05-24 | Lost |
| 1061 | 940 | 67% | 2000-05-05 | Won |
| 1116 | 1029 | 62% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1034.2 vs 1022.9 has a 51.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).