The Hawk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 113 (28 on the archive and 85 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 64
Defender wins (Japanese): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 855 | 1000 | 30% | 2025-10-14 | Won |
| 1108 | 1198 | 37% | 2025-09-18 | Won |
| 924 | 869 | 58% | 2024-12-17 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1039 | 60% | 2024-12-01 | Lost |
| 906 | 1077 | 27% | 2021-01-24 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1127 | 51% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-12-21 | Won |
| 1108 | 1143 | 45% | 2018-03-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1120 | 36% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1005 | 64% | 2016-12-20 | Won |
| 1018 | 1029 | 48% | 2016-02-18 | Lost |
| 914 | 1083 | 27% | 2015-10-24 | Won |
| 1083 | 914 | 73% | 2015-10-17 | Won |
| 1233 | 870 | 89% | 2014-07-21 | Won |
| 1071 | 855 | 78% | 2013-01-19 | Won |
| 1071 | 855 | 78% | 2013-01-12 | Won |
| 855 | 1071 | 22% | 2012-12-27 | Won |
| 855 | 1071 | 22% | 2012-12-20 | Won |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2009-06-25 | Won |
| 876 | 1029 | 29% | 2005-04-13 | Won |
| 1342 | 1044 | 85% | 2004-04-24 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1030 | 50% | 2003-12-18 | Won |
| 1162 | 1076 | 62% | 2002-07-26 | Won |
| 1120 | 1010 | 65% | 2000-12-29 | Won |
| 1030 | 1019 | 52% | 2000-05-24 | Lost |
| 1046 | 943 | 64% | 2000-05-05 | Won |
| 1105 | 1077 | 54% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1047.3 vs 1023.8 has a 53.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).