First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 5
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1092 | 920 | 73% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 932 | 1219 | 16% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1111 | 1133 | 47% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1005 | 1039 | 45% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1005 | 74% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 947 | 929 | 53% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1046 | 40% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1089 | 906 | 74% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 1089 | 1051 | 55% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1018 | 920 | 64% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1098 | 67% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1116 | 1067 | 57% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1248 | 1120 | 68% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | | Won |
| 1117 | 847 | 83% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1085.1 vs 1034.9 has a 57.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).