First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 90 (18 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (British): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2022-12-04 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 907 | 73% | 2020-12-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2020-07-05 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2020-02-09 | | Won |
| 1096 | 943 | 71% | 2019-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1211 | 1000 | 77% | 2019-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2017-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2015-05-16 | | Won |
| 1036 | 906 | 68% | 2015-05-05 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1039 | 50% | 2014-04-18 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 979 | 56% | 2009-03-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2007-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2003-04-27 | | Won |
| 1023 | 1000 | 53% | 2000-07-08 | | Won |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2000-05-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Won |
| 1086 | 832 | 81% | | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1056.7 vs 1006.3 has a 57.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).