Bailey's Demise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (17 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 28
Defender wins (Japanese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1102 | 1079 | 53% | 2024-01-29 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1157 | 25% | 2023-01-23 | | Won |
| 1057 | 987 | 60% | 2020-09-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2020-08-01 | | Won |
| 1157 | 1030 | 68% | 2020-06-14 | | Won |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2018-11-27 | | Lost |
| 1073 | 1152 | 39% | 2011-01-13 | | Won |
| 971 | 915 | 58% | 2009-07-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2008-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2007-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1233 | 23% | 2007-05-19 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2005-07-27 | | Won |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2003-06-27 | | Won |
| 1141 | 892 | 81% | 2002-10-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1078 | 39% | 2002-04-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2002-01-05 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1060.1 vs 1070.3 has a 48.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).