The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 19
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1133 | 952 | 74% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1185 | 1072 | 66% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1143 | 905 | 80% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1169 | 1010 | 71% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1095 | 46% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1058 | 68% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 974 | 1010 | 45% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1124 | 42% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1036 | 55% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1030 | 998 | 55% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1313 | 1213 | 64% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 1010 | 1060 | 43% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1044 | 46% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1058 | 1058 | 50% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1213 | 1134 | 61% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1070 | 45% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2003-05-13 | Won |
| 712 | 1152 | 7% | 2003-03-12 | Won |
| 1085 | 1085 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1085.4 vs 1041.5 has a 56.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).