The Good Shepherd
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (Canadian): 6
Defender wins (German): 10
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Canadian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1087 | 951 | 69% | 2023-04-09 | Won |
| 1186 | 1010 | 73% | 2023-04-06 | Lost |
| 1207 | 945 | 82% | 2023-04-03 | Won |
| 1149 | 1008 | 69% | 2023-03-11 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1045 | 53% | 2023-03-10 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1082 | 65% | 2023-03-05 | Won |
| 1065 | 1116 | 43% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 973 | 1032 | 42% | 2020-02-07 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1035 | 54% | 2019-12-07 | Lost |
| 1037 | 966 | 60% | 2017-03-27 | Won |
| 1316 | 1213 | 64% | 2011-06-07 | Won |
| 1032 | 1038 | 49% | 2010-12-04 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1026 | 48% | 2008-08-22 | Won |
| 1050 | 1082 | 45% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1121 | 64% | 2006-01-27 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1074 | 44% | 2003-10-01 | Won |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1106.2 vs 1050.6 has a 57.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).