Cream of the Crop
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54
Attacker wins (German): 26
Defender wins (Russian): 27
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1017 | 971 | 57% | 2025-09-09 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1162 | 46% | 2025-08-16 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1215 | 27% | 2024-12-08 | Lost |
| 1021 | 985 | 55% | 2024-11-22 | Won |
| 982 | 1217 | 21% | 2024-03-09 | Won |
| 1027 | 1070 | 44% | 2023-11-30 | Won |
| 855 | 1135 | 17% | 2023-11-26 | Won |
| 1012 | 950 | 59% | 2023-08-23 | Won |
| 1039 | 933 | 65% | 2023-03-23 | Won |
| 1040 | 983 | 58% | 2022-12-16 | Won |
| 1069 | 1107 | 45% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 937 | 924 | 52% | 2021-11-24 | Lost |
| 1061 | 924 | 69% | 2021-11-12 | Won |
| 1027 | 982 | 56% | 2021-01-05 | Won |
| 948 | 1059 | 35% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1077 | 61% | 2020-08-22 | Won |
| 1003 | 1122 | 34% | 2019-03-09 | Lost |
| 1045 | 970 | 61% | 2018-05-22 | Won |
| 1038 | 992 | 57% | 2017-10-28 | Lost |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2017-09-21 | Won |
| 1038 | 901 | 69% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 881 | 1077 | 24% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1226 | 969 | 81% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1059 | 969 | 63% | 2015-11-29 | Won |
| 1158 | 984 | 73% | 2015-07-01 | Tied |
| 1052 | 1099 | 43% | 2015-05-02 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1059 | 60% | 2014-11-16 | Won |
| 1126 | 976 | 70% | 2014-09-27 | Won |
| 1015 | 1114 | 36% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-07-09 | Won |
| 1117 | 960 | 71% | 2012-04-27 | Won |
| 967 | 1038 | 40% | 2012-03-31 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2010-02-19 | Lost |
| 941 | 1107 | 28% | 2009-01-22 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1233 | 37% | 2008-10-24 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1233 | 23% | 2008-09-04 | Lost |
| 973 | 1150 | 27% | 2006-03-26 | Lost |
| 1266 | 1263 | 50% | 2005-07-24 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1003 | 77% | 2005-03-10 | Lost |
| 1219 | 992 | 79% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
| 1140 | 999 | 69% | 2004-10-09 | Won |
| 1032 | 1058 | 46% | 2004-10-01 | Lost |
| 887 | 907 | 47% | 2004-03-15 | Won |
| 987 | 907 | 61% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 980 | 1140 | 28% | 2003-10-07 | Won |
| 985 | 1060 | 39% | 2002-03-10 | Won |
| 1140 | 1186 | 43% | 2001-05-25 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1021 | 63% | 2000-06-03 | Won |
| 1048 | 1077 | 46% | 2000-05-26 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1026 | 52% | 1999-10-30 | Won |
| 1077 | 815 | 82% | 1999-10-07 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1127 | 47% | 1999-10-03 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1073 | 55% | 1999-09-01 | Won |
| 1342 | 1027 | 86% | 1999-06-25 | Won |
Attacking (26 wins) average ELOs: 1057.1 vs 1042.5 has a 52.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).