Mike Red
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (16 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 16
Defender wins (German): 46
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-23 | Won |
| 1054 | 1151 | 36% | 2022-06-29 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1189 | 33% | 2021-06-02 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2021-03-28 | Lost |
| 1052 | 961 | 63% | 2020-01-20 | Won |
| 961 | 1052 | 37% | 2019-12-30 | Lost |
| 857 | 1127 | 17% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1060 | 57% | 2015-07-28 | Lost |
| 994 | 1158 | 28% | 2011-08-14 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1104 | 52% | 2007-08-04 | Lost |
| 1144 | 977 | 72% | 2006-06-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1152 | 31% | 2005-10-02 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 1998-01-08 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 1998-01-07 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1036 | 61% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1046.7 vs 1074 has a 46.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).