Mike Red
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (16 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 38
Defender wins (German): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-23 | Won |
| 1054 | 1151 | 36% | 2022-06-29 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1177 | 32% | 2021-06-02 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2021-03-28 | Lost |
| 1029 | 930 | 64% | 2020-01-20 | Won |
| 930 | 1029 | 36% | 2019-12-30 | Lost |
| 853 | 1158 | 15% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1099 | 54% | 2015-07-28 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1178 | 35% | 2011-08-14 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1105 | 60% | 2007-08-04 | Lost |
| 1143 | 962 | 74% | 2006-06-07 | Won |
| 1015 | 1138 | 33% | 2005-10-02 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1203 | 31% | 1998-01-08 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1203 | 31% | 1998-01-07 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1037 | 59% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1053.6 vs 1099.1 has a 43.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).