Mayhem in Manila
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 220 (30 on the archive and 190 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 107
Defender wins (Japanese): 113
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 931 | 1065 | 32% | 2025-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2024-06-21 | | Lost |
| 1054 | 1068 | 48% | 2020-04-14 | | Won |
| 1068 | 1054 | 52% | 2020-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1214 | 23% | 2019-04-13 | | Won |
| 986 | 1242 | 19% | 2016-07-30 | | Lost |
| 808 | 1226 | 8% | 2016-05-23 | | Won |
| 997 | 1242 | 20% | 2016-04-02 | | Won |
| 940 | 893 | 57% | 2016-02-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 2011-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1020 | 51% | 2011-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2011-06-06 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2008-08-25 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2006-04-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2005-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2004-10-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1018 | 47% | 2003-07-30 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 980 | 63% | 2003-04-25 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2002-04-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2001-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2001-02-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2000-10-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2000-04-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 1999-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 1999-07-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 1999-07-09 | | Won |
| 1143 | 1242 | 36% | 1999-05-01 | | Won |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 1998-04-18 | | Won |
| 1086 | 1013 | 60% | | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1047.4 vs 1084.3 has a 44.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).