Mayhem in Manila
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 212 (22 on the archive and 190 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 102
Defender wins (Japanese): 110
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1068 | 49% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1068 | 1058 | 51% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 789 | 1146 | 11% | 2019-04-13 | Won |
| 805 | 1223 | 8% | 2016-05-23 | Won |
| 998 | 892 | 65% | 2016-02-13 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1125 | 52% | 2011-12-05 | Lost |
| 1028 | 991 | 55% | 2011-10-06 | Won |
| 1033 | 1313 | 17% | 2011-06-06 | Won |
| 1044 | 1014 | 54% | 2008-08-25 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1090 | 59% | 2005-10-06 | Won |
| 1135 | 1152 | 48% | 2004-10-09 | Won |
| 914 | 1062 | 30% | 2003-07-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 981 | 58% | 2003-04-25 | Won |
| 1037 | 994 | 56% | 2002-04-28 | Won |
| 1125 | 1115 | 51% | 2001-10-07 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1152 | 39% | 2000-10-05 | Won |
| 1010 | 905 | 65% | 2000-04-09 | Lost |
| 1213 | 1010 | 76% | 1999-07-31 | Won |
| 902 | 1044 | 31% | 1999-07-09 | Won |
| 1085 | 1039 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1035 vs 1069.6 has a 45.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).