Mayhem in Manila
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 220 (30 on the archive and 190 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 107
Defender wins (Japanese): 113
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 930 | 983 | 42% | 2025-12-05 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1071 | 48% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1071 | 1056 | 52% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1031 | 1190 | 29% | 2019-04-13 | Won |
| 986 | 1264 | 17% | 2016-07-30 | Lost |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-05-23 | Won |
| 996 | 1264 | 18% | 2016-04-02 | Won |
| 893 | 893 | 50% | 2016-02-13 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1125 | 52% | 2011-12-05 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1020 | 51% | 2011-10-06 | Won |
| 1033 | 1232 | 24% | 2011-06-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 1189 | 35% | 2008-08-25 | Lost |
| 1344 | 977 | 89% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 1086 | 58% | 2005-10-06 | Won |
| 903 | 1140 | 20% | 2004-10-09 | Won |
| 913 | 1048 | 31% | 2003-07-30 | Lost |
| 1066 | 979 | 62% | 2003-04-25 | Won |
| 1031 | 984 | 57% | 2002-04-28 | Won |
| 1129 | 1159 | 46% | 2001-10-07 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1292 | 46% | 2001-02-25 | Won |
| 1084 | 1140 | 42% | 2000-10-05 | Won |
| 1073 | 985 | 62% | 2000-04-09 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1264 | 38% | 1999-10-07 | Lost |
| 1177 | 953 | 78% | 1999-07-31 | Won |
| 902 | 1080 | 26% | 1999-07-09 | Won |
| 1143 | 1264 | 33% | 1999-05-01 | Won |
| 1264 | 1149 | 66% | 1998-04-18 | Won |
| 1036 | 1039 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1060.8 vs 1108.3 has a 43.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).