The Red Wave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26
Attacker wins (Russian): 10
Defender wins (German (SS)): 15
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German (SS)): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 948 | 1007 | 42% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1281 | 19% | 2022-03-11 | Lost |
| 1281 | 1024 | 81% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1009 | 53% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1071 | 940 | 68% | 2021-02-13 | Lost |
| 948 | 1031 | 38% | 2021-01-25 | Lost |
| 940 | 1021 | 39% | 2021-01-25 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 998 | 1009 | 48% | 2020-01-11 | Lost |
| 887 | 1002 | 34% | 2019-05-15 | Won |
| 869 | 846 | 53% | 2017-06-19 | Won |
| 1281 | 873 | 91% | 2016-12-30 | Won |
| 1172 | 1173 | 50% | 2016-01-24 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1050 | 47% | 2015-10-28 | Lost |
| 1089 | 882 | 77% | 2015-06-14 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1083 | 44% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1003 | 932 | 60% | 2003-10-01 | Lost |
| 1151 | 713 | 93% | 2000-11-29 | Won |
| 1203 | 1105 | 64% | 2000-06-25 | Won |
| 1151 | 713 | 93% | 1999-08-16 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1089 | 66% | 1999-07-01 | Won |
| 987 | 1174 | 25% | 1999-01-06 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1003 | 68% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 1998-03-18 | Won |
| 1100 | 890 | 77% | 1998-01-14 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1065.2 vs 999.1 has a 59.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).