Urban Guerillas
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 445 (78 on the archive and 367 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 242
Defender wins (German (SS)): 203
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1087 | 1100 | 48% | 2025-01-24 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1100 | 38% | 2025-01-24 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-12-21 | Won |
| 1141 | 1177 | 45% | 2024-09-22 | Lost |
| 764 | 1200 | 8% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1039 | 54% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 1096 | 729 | 89% | 2023-07-09 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1031 | 47% | 2022-12-28 | Lost |
| 1228 | 948 | 83% | 2022-08-23 | Won |
| 1143 | 947 | 76% | 2021-03-17 | Won |
| 1102 | 1035 | 60% | 2021-01-06 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1151 | 54% | 2020-11-15 | Lost |
| 972 | 1242 | 17% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1032 | 61% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1057 | 66% | 2020-06-16 | Won |
| 1056 | 1044 | 52% | 2020-05-19 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1321 | 24% | 2020-02-28 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1135 | 56% | 2020-02-14 | Won |
| 946 | 1219 | 17% | 2019-07-14 | Lost |
| 970 | 904 | 59% | 2018-10-08 | Lost |
| 1006 | 933 | 60% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
| 949 | 904 | 56% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 1074 | 925 | 70% | 2017-10-10 | Won |
| 1114 | 1127 | 48% | 2017-04-04 | Won |
| 827 | 846 | 47% | 2016-02-02 | Won |
| 1039 | 1087 | 43% | 2015-10-08 | Lost |
| 976 | 922 | 58% | 2015-04-12 | Lost |
| 947 | 1143 | 24% | 2015-03-04 | Won |
| 1037 | 881 | 71% | 2014-12-01 | Won |
| 1017 | 999 | 53% | 2014-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1081 | 36% | 2014-09-10 | Lost |
| 1081 | 983 | 64% | 2014-08-20 | Won |
| 1096 | 1060 | 55% | 2014-07-23 | Won |
| 1068 | 1125 | 42% | 2013-10-16 | Won |
| 1144 | 956 | 75% | 2013-05-11 | Won |
| 951 | 954 | 50% | 2013-04-27 | Won |
| 1067 | 892 | 73% | 2012-12-31 | Lost |
| 972 | 1025 | 42% | 2012-09-22 | Won |
| 1098 | 913 | 74% | 2012-08-13 | Won |
| 1041 | 1095 | 42% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1114 | 57% | 2011-08-01 | Won |
| 1095 | 1041 | 58% | 2011-06-01 | Won |
| 1011 | 1089 | 39% | 2011-02-11 | Won |
| 1119 | 1164 | 44% | 2010-04-22 | Lost |
| 906 | 1151 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1416 | 14% | 2008-09-06 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1044 | 52% | 2008-09-04 | Lost |
| 983 | 1177 | 25% | 2007-08-16 | Won |
| 1076 | 1095 | 47% | 2006-06-26 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1416 | 18% | 2006-05-13 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1329 | 17% | 2006-04-14 | Won |
| 1329 | 1285 | 56% | 2006-04-13 | Won |
| 969 | 1050 | 39% | 2006-03-06 | Won |
| 1050 | 969 | 61% | 2006-02-26 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2006-02-10 | Won |
| 1125 | 1329 | 24% | 2006-01-10 | Won |
| 1032 | 1046 | 48% | 2005-11-11 | Won |
| 838 | 1152 | 14% | 2005-11-11 | Lost |
| 1095 | 980 | 66% | 2005-08-25 | Won |
| 1067 | 986 | 61% | 2005-05-07 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1095 | 44% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 1052 | 996 | 58% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 954 | 1228 | 17% | 2004-03-13 | Won |
| 921 | 928 | 49% | 2004-02-08 | Won |
| 847 | 986 | 31% | 2002-12-05 | Won |
| 1154 | 1064 | 63% | 2001-04-01 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1200 | 44% | 2000-12-10 | Lost |
| 918 | 987 | 40% | 2000-10-28 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1064 | 59% | 2000-10-28 | Won |
| 1040 | 1044 | 49% | 2000-10-27 | Won |
| 1233 | 1127 | 65% | 2000-02-05 | Won |
| 1052 | 790 | 82% | 1999-12-05 | Lost |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 1999-09-29 | Won |
| 902 | 1044 | 31% | 1999-07-02 | Won |
| 1107 | 1153 | 43% | 1999-03-21 | Lost |
| 981 | 1028 | 43% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | Lost | |
| 1090 | 1029 | 59% | Won |
Attacking (40 wins) average ELOs: 1051.6 vs 1061.1 has a 48.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).