Merzenhausen Zoo
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 194 (36 on the archive and 158 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 86
Defender wins (German): 107
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 964 | 1040 | 39% | 2025-10-30 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1072 | 67% | 2024-03-24 | Lost |
| 780 | 1000 | 22% | 2022-12-19 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1095 | 45% | 2022-11-21 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1005 | 55% | 2022-10-10 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1157 | 63% | 2022-08-31 | Won |
| 1117 | 1054 | 59% | 2022-06-27 | Lost |
| 1222 | 1134 | 62% | 2021-02-28 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-10-30 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1186 | 61% | 2020-07-30 | Won |
| 978 | 1048 | 40% | 2019-08-24 | Won |
| 1119 | 1216 | 36% | 2018-02-18 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1047 | 73% | 2018-01-01 | Tied |
| 1113 | 970 | 69% | 2016-08-24 | Won |
| 1117 | 976 | 69% | 2015-03-15 | Won |
| 951 | 890 | 59% | 2014-01-01 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1065 | 55% | 2013-01-10 | Lost |
| 1094 | 962 | 68% | 2012-11-30 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1073 | 42% | 2011-07-17 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1094 | 63% | 2011-04-29 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2010-11-01 | Won |
| 1238 | 1049 | 75% | 2009-12-22 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1208 | 58% | 2009-10-06 | Won |
| 980 | 1073 | 37% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1424 | 1287 | 69% | 2007-03-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 985 | 71% | 2003-11-07 | Lost |
| 1176 | 833 | 88% | 2003-03-27 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2003-02-25 | Lost |
| 1140 | 999 | 69% | 2001-10-06 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1000 | 73% | 2000-12-10 | Lost |
| 993 | 1101 | 35% | 2000-09-24 | Won |
| 1344 | 1022 | 86% | 2000-07-14 | Won |
| 1101 | 993 | 65% | 2000-07-11 | Won |
| 1042 | 1110 | 40% | 2000-06-11 | Won |
| 1048 | 788 | 82% | 2000-03-26 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1015 | 87% | 1999-11-16 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1120 vs 1046.3 has a 60.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).