Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (British / French): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1085 | 1085 | 50% | 2026-03-09 | Won |
| 991 | 1033 | 44% | 2025-07-12 | Lost |
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 1034 | 890 | 70% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1007 | 54% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 999 | 61% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1080 | 999 | 61% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 982 | 1093 | 35% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 984 | 1031 | 43% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 987 | 1085 | 36% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1151 | 1133 | 53% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1105 | 1070 | 55% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 1174 | 948 | 79% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1220 | 750 | 94% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1174 | 44% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1208 | 31% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1220 | 25% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1133 | 39% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1085 | 987 | 64% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 960 | 1085 | 33% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1085 | 987 | 64% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2007-08-18 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1347 | 26% | 2005-03-10 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1169 | 28% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 983 | 74% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1060 | 57% | 2003-01-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1313 | 29% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1052 | 60% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 1034 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1077.9 vs 1067.3 has a 51.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).