The Hedgehog of Piepsk
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29
Attacker wins (Russian): 9
Defender wins (German): 19
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 971 | 993 | 47% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-10-23 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1282 | 47% | 2023-10-04 | Won |
| 1002 | 1002 | 50% | 2023-07-17 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1055 | 54% | 2023-05-22 | Won |
| 996 | 963 | 55% | 2023-03-10 | Won |
| 1209 | 1009 | 76% | 2022-12-15 | Won |
| 1187 | 1224 | 45% | 2021-12-30 | Won |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2021-01-09 | Won |
| 895 | 913 | 47% | 2020-12-01 | Won |
| 951 | 1187 | 20% | 2020-09-19 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1042 | 73% | 2020-07-21 | Lost |
| 917 | 970 | 42% | 2020-06-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1223 | 22% | 2020-04-12 | Lost |
| 988 | 1187 | 24% | 2019-11-09 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1132 | 37% | 2019-04-24 | Lost |
| 908 | 1022 | 34% | 2019-02-11 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-02-27 | Lost |
| 991 | 993 | 50% | 2017-09-09 | Lost |
| 908 | 1020 | 34% | 2017-03-10 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1006 | 54% | 2015-05-19 | Won |
| 841 | 889 | 43% | 2014-10-19 | Lost |
| 1187 | 844 | 88% | 2013-08-26 | Lost |
| 964 | 993 | 46% | 2010-03-28 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1076 | 50% | 2007-12-29 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1132 | 63% | 2007-04-19 | Lost |
| 943 | 832 | 65% | 2006-07-11 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1038.8 vs 1036.8 has a 50.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).