The Guards Counterattack
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 577 (19 on the archive and 558 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 283
Defender wins (German): 294
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2020-11-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1021 | 47% | 2019-04-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 992 | 51% | 2018-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2014-03-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1002 | 50% | 2013-07-25 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2013-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1010 | 49% | 2012-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-12-15 | | Won |
| 1010 | 1000 | 51% | 2011-09-27 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2010-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 896 | 65% | 2009-08-12 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2009-04-18 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1006 | 59% | 2009-01-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2004-09-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1100 | 36% | 2003-05-20 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1215 | 30% | 1999-02-15 | | Lost |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 1992-06-14 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 1990-09-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 1988-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1039.7 vs 1032.8 has a 50.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).