Alligator Creek
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34 (8 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 21
Defender wins (American (USMC)): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 998 | 1000 | 50% | 2026-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1019 | 64% | 2021-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1056 | 59% | 2021-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1054 | 42% | 2020-10-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2017-08-20 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2012-11-18 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1001 | 58% | 2004-02-14 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1072 | 59% | 2000-11-20 | | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1064.6 vs 1013.4 has a 57.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).