Gambit
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 100 (17 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 31
Defender wins (German): 68
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1116 | 1104 | 52% | 2025-04-27 | Won |
| 1104 | 1116 | 48% | 2025-03-30 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1104 | 52% | 2025-02-16 | Won |
| 959 | 971 | 48% | 2024-03-25 | Lost |
| 943 | 959 | 48% | 2020-08-08 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1094 | 54% | 2017-06-01 | Lost |
| 853 | 1157 | 15% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1021 | 50% | 2015-10-14 | Lost |
| 1002 | 998 | 51% | 2014-02-14 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1062 | 48% | 2010-01-01 | Won |
| 1310 | 1153 | 71% | 2007-09-22 | Won |
| 966 | 1029 | 41% | 2005-06-29 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2005-05-20 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1034 | 62% | 2002-12-07 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1248 | 28% | 1998-10-25 | Won |
| 1117 | 1121 | 49% | | Lost |
| 1117 | 1121 | 49% | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1057 vs 1074.6 has a 47.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).