Prelude to Festung Brest
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64
Attacker wins (American): 29
Defender wins (German): 34
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1284 | 16% | 2026-04-20 | Lost | |
| 942 | 1059 | 34% | 2026-04-02 | Won | |
| 1059 | 942 | 66% | 2026-03-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2026-03-04 | Won | |
| 1101 | 1093 | 51% | 2024-09-19 | Won | |
| 1015 | 992 | 53% | 2024-09-12 | Won | |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-08-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2023-12-03 | Lost | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2023-11-30 | Won | |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2023-11-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 910 | 63% | 2023-11-01 | D | Won |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2023-09-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1294 | 16% | 2023-06-19 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-01-09 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-01-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1284 | 16% | 2022-08-19 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2021-10-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-09-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 892 | 65% | 2021-08-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-02-22 | Won | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2021-02-19 | Won | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2021-01-17 | Won | |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2021-01-01 | Lost | |
| 1140 | 964 | 73% | 2020-12-01 | Lost | |
| 994 | 978 | 52% | 2020-11-05 | Lost | |
| 1035 | 978 | 58% | 2020-11-02 | Won | |
| 978 | 1035 | 42% | 2020-10-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2020-07-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2020-04-25 | Lost | |
| 926 | 993 | 40% | 2020-02-24 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2019-06-08 | Lost | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2019-03-27 | Lost | |
| 1093 | 1000 | 63% | 2019-02-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 997 | 50% | 2018-10-08 | Lost | |
| 1135 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-05-18 | Won | |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-05-18 | Won | |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2017-04-17 | Lost | |
| 994 | 1219 | 21% | 2017-02-22 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 894 | 80% | 2016-12-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 892 | 65% | 2016-08-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 892 | 65% | 2016-07-26 | Tied | |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2016-07-26 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2015-11-19 | Lost | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-07-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2015-06-28 | Won | |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2014-12-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1043 | 44% | 2014-06-03 | Won | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2014-01-30 | Won | |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2013-11-23 | Won | |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2013-04-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2012-11-11 | Lost | |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2011-08-02 | Won | |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2011-08-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1093 | 37% | 2010-11-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2010-05-22 | Lost | |
| 936 | 1000 | 41% | 2010-02-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2009-10-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2009-05-14 | Lost | |
| 893 | 917 | 47% | 2009-01-28 | Lost | |
| 946 | 1019 | 40% | 2009-01-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1215 | 22% | 2009-01-04 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2008-11-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1103 | 36% | 2008-10-17 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2008-07-13 | Won | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2006-10-22 | Lost |
Attacking (30 wins) average ELOs: 1027.2 vs 1034.3 has a 48.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).