Gut Check
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21 (9 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-01-07 | | Lost |
| 1070 | 1097 | 46% | 2025-12-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1076 | 39% | 2018-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 904 | 63% | 2011-07-14 | | Won |
| 695 | 1062 | 11% | 2009-10-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1141 | 35% | 2005-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 985 vs 1037.9 has a 42.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).