Gut Check
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 9
Attacker wins (Canadian): 3
Defender wins (Italian): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 1070 | 49% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2025-12-18 | Lost |
| 914 | 1094 | 26% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 826 | 965 | 31% | 2011-07-14 | Won |
| 695 | 1094 | 9% | 2009-10-17 | Won |
| 866 | 1015 | 30% | 2009-10-10 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1141 | 38% | 2005-10-06 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 935.8 vs 1065.6 has a 32.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).