Gut Check
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 9
Attacker wins (Canadian): 3
Defender wins (Italian): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 1031 | 47% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1012 | 52% | 2026-01-07 | Lost |
| 1019 | 967 | 57% | 2025-12-18 | Lost |
| 914 | 1033 | 34% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 826 | 884 | 42% | 2011-07-14 | Won |
| 694 | 1022 | 13% | 2009-10-17 | Won |
| 865 | 1015 | 30% | 2009-10-10 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1141 | 38% | 2005-10-06 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | | Won |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 938.4 vs 1013.7 has a 39.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).