Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (24 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1184 | 964 | 78% | 2025-09-24 | Won |
| 997 | 977 | 53% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 890 | 1033 | 31% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 995 | 980 | 52% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 994 | 1067 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1074 | 82% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1072 | 1114 | 44% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1100 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 890 | 1058 | 28% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1090 | 64% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 993 | 1031 | 45% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1019 | 57% | 2008-07-09 | Won |
| 1140 | 1066 | 60% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1140 | 731 | 91% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 1037 | 1342 | 15% | 2006-04-14 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1147 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1174 | 1130 | 56% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1026 | 1037 | 48% | 2005-10-21 | Lost |
| 1184 | 952 | 79% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1068.4 vs 1040.5 has a 54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).