The Road to Lyon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24 (23 on the archive and 1 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (French): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 951 | 907 | 56% | 2026-05-02 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-04-04 | | Won |
| 1210 | 1156 | 58% | 2023-01-29 | | Won |
| 894 | 1020 | 33% | 2021-11-19 | | Won |
| 1240 | 1078 | 72% | 2020-11-28 | | Won |
| 992 | 1098 | 35% | 2020-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1063 | 1000 | 59% | 2017-05-09 | | Won |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | | Won |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2017-03-04 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1051 | 64% | 2014-10-05 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2012-10-26 | | Won |
| 1069 | 695 | 90% | 2012-03-17 | | Won |
| 695 | 1000 | 15% | 2012-03-16 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2010-04-01 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2007-04-10 | | Won |
| 862 | 1152 | 16% | 2007-03-30 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2006-09-08 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2006-06-22 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2004-07-06 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2004-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2003-11-09 | | Lost |
| 1344 | 1000 | 88% | 2003-07-24 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 899 | 80% | 2002-01-24 | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1044.9 vs 1020.7 has a 53.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).