Holding the Hotton Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (American): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 965 | 965 | 50% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 992 | 1256 | 18% | 2022-03-12 | Lost |
| 1075 | 840 | 79% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 1135 | 955 | 74% | 2020-05-10 | Won |
| 980 | 985 | 49% | 2019-06-18 | Won |
| 1065 | 1065 | 50% | 2017-11-05 | Lost |
| 1075 | 918 | 71% | 2015-03-29 | Lost |
| 932 | 986 | 42% | 2015-01-31 | Won |
| 999 | 1024 | 46% | 2014-12-07 | Lost |
| 1217 | 981 | 80% | 2013-05-13 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2010-11-30 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2010-10-09 | Won |
| 1058 | 1044 | 52% | 2010-08-28 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1015 | 52% | 2009-11-19 | Won |
| 980 | 1105 | 33% | 2008-12-26 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1105 | 37% | 2008-12-08 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1228 | 37% | 2008-08-15 | Lost |
| 1260 | 977 | 84% | 2006-10-24 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1051 | 57% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1117 | 38% | 2005-02-10 | Won |
| 1097 | 1068 | 54% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 1068 | 1051 | 52% | 2004-07-22 | Won |
| 1068 | 1260 | 25% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 831 | 1170 | 12% | 2003-12-24 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1002 | 72% | 2001-06-22 | Lost |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 992 | 1101 | 35% | 1998-09-12 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1032 | 48% | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1032 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1040.5 vs 1054.5 has a 47.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).