Holding the Hotton Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32
Attacker wins (German): 15
Defender wins (American): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 997 | 997 | 50% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-04-08 | Won |
| 937 | 1256 | 14% | 2022-03-12 | Lost |
| 1050 | 840 | 77% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 1135 | 954 | 74% | 2020-05-10 | Won |
| 934 | 985 | 43% | 2019-06-18 | Won |
| 1051 | 1063 | 48% | 2017-11-05 | Lost |
| 1050 | 922 | 68% | 2015-03-29 | Lost |
| 930 | 986 | 42% | 2015-01-31 | Won |
| 999 | 1051 | 43% | 2014-12-07 | Lost |
| 1219 | 982 | 80% | 2013-05-13 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 2010-11-30 | Won |
| 1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2010-10-09 | Won |
| 1061 | 1044 | 52% | 2010-08-28 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1011 | 53% | 2009-11-19 | Won |
| 1041 | 1075 | 45% | 2008-12-26 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1075 | 41% | 2008-12-08 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1228 | 37% | 2008-08-15 | Lost |
| 1154 | 978 | 73% | 2006-10-24 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1050 | 57% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1117 | 38% | 2005-02-10 | Won |
| 1105 | 1063 | 56% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 1154 | 1011 | 69% | 2004-11-24 | Won |
| 998 | 998 | 50% | 2004-07-22 | Won |
| 998 | 1154 | 29% | 2004-02-24 | Won |
| 830 | 1156 | 13% | 2003-12-24 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1003 | 71% | 2001-06-22 | Lost |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
| 890 | 1100 | 23% | 1998-09-12 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1103 | 48% | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1103 | 40% | | Lost |
| 1030 | 1103 | 40% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1032.5 vs 1054.5 has a 46.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).