The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (American): 8
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 1002 | 47% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1238 | 1120 | 66% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 946 | 1040 | 37% | 2015-05-10 | Lost |
| 952 | 1126 | 27% | 2014-03-05 | Lost |
| 997 | 1263 | 18% | 2012-10-07 | Lost |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 972 | 906 | 59% | 2010-01-28 | Won |
| 1015 | 1028 | 48% | 2010-01-24 | Won |
| 1031 | 1080 | 43% | 2007-03-05 | Won |
| 1035 | 969 | 59% | 2007-01-16 | Lost |
| 1034 | 952 | 62% | 2006-09-13 | Won |
| 913 | 1018 | 35% | 2004-12-27 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1086 | 55% | 2004-12-21 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1148 | 59% | 2004-10-24 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1120 | 39% | 2004-01-03 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1014 | 57% | 2000-08-01 | Won |
| 1159 | 940 | 78% | 2000-06-24 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1073 | 51% | 1998-09-20 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1159 | 51% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 1997-01-14 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1061 vs 1027 has a 54.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).