The Hornet of Cloville
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (American): 8
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1074 | 945 | 68% | 2022-03-26 | Won |
| 1253 | 1087 | 72% | 2018-12-30 | Won |
| 918 | 1075 | 29% | 2015-05-10 | Lost |
| 952 | 1126 | 27% | 2014-03-05 | Lost |
| 996 | 1283 | 16% | 2012-10-07 | Lost |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 934 | 919 | 52% | 2010-01-28 | Won |
| 1015 | 1028 | 48% | 2010-01-24 | Won |
| 1022 | 1081 | 42% | 2007-03-05 | Won |
| 1036 | 969 | 60% | 2007-01-16 | Lost |
| 1025 | 952 | 60% | 2006-09-13 | Won |
| 913 | 1065 | 29% | 2004-12-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1085 | 55% | 2004-12-21 | Lost |
| 1229 | 1148 | 61% | 2004-10-24 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1123 | 39% | 2004-01-03 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1041 | 53% | 2000-08-01 | Won |
| 1204 | 940 | 82% | 2000-06-24 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1073 | 51% | 1998-09-20 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1173 | 49% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 1997-01-14 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1018 | 52% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1064.7 vs 1028.4 has a 55.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).