Baking Bread
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 145 (63 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 78
Defender wins (Russian): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1015 | 992 | 53% | 2025-05-23 | Won |
| 1015 | 1023 | 49% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 1061 | 937 | 67% | 2024-12-01 | Won |
| 741 | 990 | 19% | 2024-09-23 | Won |
| 1036 | 1036 | 50% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1080 | 50% | 2024-02-03 | Lost |
| 979 | 1282 | 15% | 2023-12-01 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1058 | 50% | 2023-03-20 | Won |
| 1145 | 741 | 91% | 2022-05-10 | Won |
| 997 | 966 | 54% | 2021-10-29 | Won |
| 989 | 894 | 63% | 2021-09-05 | Won |
| 1034 | 1041 | 49% | 2021-07-13 | Won |
| 1035 | 1030 | 51% | 2021-02-07 | Tied |
| 964 | 998 | 45% | 2021-01-27 | Won |
| 1142 | 1041 | 64% | 2020-12-27 | Won |
| 1125 | 1041 | 62% | 2020-11-30 | Lost |
| 850 | 984 | 32% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 989 | 1078 | 37% | 2020-08-27 | Won |
| 1012 | 1053 | 44% | 2020-06-30 | Won |
| 1018 | 1012 | 51% | 2020-03-31 | Won |
| 959 | 1026 | 40% | 2019-12-29 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1109 | 59% | 2019-12-11 | Won |
| 1228 | 741 | 94% | 2019-12-03 | Won |
| 1330 | 989 | 88% | 2019-10-20 | Won |
| 989 | 741 | 81% | 2019-04-24 | Won |
| 1026 | 939 | 62% | 2018-06-03 | Won |
| 911 | 1026 | 34% | 2017-10-28 | Lost |
| 934 | 1026 | 37% | 2017-10-19 | Tied |
| 1203 | 951 | 81% | 2017-09-22 | Won |
| 926 | 892 | 55% | 2017-07-23 | Won |
| 741 | 879 | 31% | 2016-09-04 | Tied |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2015-10-06 | Lost |
| 846 | 932 | 38% | 2015-07-04 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1018 | 51% | 2015-03-22 | Won |
| 939 | 953 | 48% | 2014-10-24 | Won |
| 1093 | 972 | 67% | 2014-10-06 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1220 | 49% | 2014-07-05 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1212 | 51% | 2014-04-26 | Lost |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-03-27 | Won |
| 741 | 997 | 19% | 2013-12-21 | Lost |
| 960 | 951 | 51% | 2012-09-27 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1216 | 30% | 2012-06-23 | Lost |
| 1018 | 741 | 83% | 2012-03-01 | Won |
| 1047 | 1056 | 49% | 2011-11-20 | Won |
| 1041 | 1141 | 36% | 2011-06-04 | Lost |
| 1098 | 943 | 71% | 2011-02-25 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1061 | 985 | 61% | 2010-11-17 | Won |
| 919 | 1045 | 33% | 2009-11-18 | Lost |
| 919 | 1045 | 33% | 2009-11-18 | Lost |
| 959 | 1216 | 19% | 2009-04-29 | Won |
| 1096 | 1030 | 59% | 2009-02-11 | Lost |
| 741 | 990 | 19% | 2009-01-17 | Lost |
| 943 | 1042 | 36% | 2009-01-03 | Lost |
| 976 | 919 | 58% | 2008-10-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1012 | 49% | 2008-07-06 | Lost |
| 1075 | 893 | 74% | 2007-10-25 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-03-04 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-03-04 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-02-19 | Won |
| 960 | 937 | 53% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2007-01-21 | Won |
| 984 | 1096 | 34% | 2006-08-15 | Lost |
Attacking (34 wins) average ELOs: 1009.8 vs 1002 has a 51.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).