Monty's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 18
Defender wins (British): 48
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 2
Defender wins (British): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2025-08-13 | Won |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2025-01-03 | Won |
| 964 | 1023 | 42% | 2024-12-27 | Lost |
| 970 | 991 | 47% | 2024-10-25 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2024-06-25 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1033 | 50% | 2024-04-15 | Lost |
| 1291 | 991 | 85% | 2024-02-26 | Won |
| 1064 | 1142 | 39% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1172 | 46% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2023-07-11 | Won |
| 1173 | 991 | 74% | 2023-07-04 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 1248 | 991 | 81% | 2023-02-25 | Lost |
| 963 | 999 | 45% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1139 | 50% | 2022-08-28 | Lost |
| 881 | 874 | 51% | 2022-04-03 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2021-11-27 | Lost |
| 874 | 1064 | 25% | 2021-09-06 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1144 | 32% | 2021-08-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 999 | 51% | 2021-04-12 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1012 | 77% | 2021-02-05 | Lost |
| 850 | 1012 | 28% | 2021-02-05 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1030 | 53% | 2021-01-14 | Lost |
| 982 | 999 | 48% | 2020-12-18 | Won |
| 943 | 971 | 46% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1173 | 50% | 2020-08-16 | Lost |
| 992 | 992 | 50% | 2020-05-09 | Lost |
| 1163 | 991 | 73% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1163 | 992 | 73% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 967 | 1086 | 34% | 2020-05-03 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1163 | 41% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 845 | 967 | 33% | 2020-01-04 | Lost |
| 991 | 1228 | 20% | 2019-09-12 | Lost |
| 1026 | 989 | 55% | 2019-06-30 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1139 | 32% | 2019-02-23 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2019-02-23 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1039 | 48% | 2018-07-12 | Won |
| 1026 | 1039 | 48% | 2018-07-10 | Lost |
| 889 | 975 | 38% | 2018-06-29 | Lost |
| 975 | 889 | 62% | 2018-06-28 | Lost |
| 1018 | 984 | 55% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2017-11-12 | Won |
| 1078 | 1072 | 51% | 2016-09-15 | Lost |
| 878 | 991 | 34% | 2016-09-11 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1139 | 41% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 847 | 1040 | 25% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2015-06-01 | Lost |
| 1423 | 942 | 94% | 2015-01-28 | Won |
| 1212 | 1220 | 49% | 2014-12-14 | Lost |
| 870 | 847 | 53% | 2014-07-21 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1126 | 40% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 981 | 981 | 50% | 2014-05-07 | Lost |
| 1012 | 991 | 53% | 2013-05-03 | Lost |
| 1431 | 1178 | 81% | 2013-04-01 | Won |
| 984 | 984 | 50% | 2013-02-18 | Lost |
| 984 | 1018 | 45% | 2012-02-08 | Lost |
| 956 | 1044 | 38% | 2012-02-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1062 | 44% | 2010-04-09 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1012 | 50% | 2010-03-15 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1058 | 43% | 2009-07-20 | Lost |
| 1039 | 986 | 58% | 2009-03-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 991 | 50% | 2009-02-22 | Won |
| 919 | 976 | 42% | 2008-11-10 | Won |
| 1019 | 1068 | 43% | 2008-07-25 | Won |
| 1062 | 939 | 67% | 2008-03-29 | Won |
| 1152 | 964 | 75% | 2008-02-22 | Lost |
| 870 | 1007 | 31% | 2007-11-01 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-07-14 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2007-06-09 | Won |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1035.3 vs 1032.4 has a 50.42% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).