Monty's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 149 (69 on the archive and 83 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 41
Defender wins (British): 108
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 2
Defender wins (British): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 954 | 1047 | 37% | 2026-07-30 | Lost | |
| 1027 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-08-13 | A | Won |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2025-01-03 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2024-12-27 | Lost | |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-10-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 986 | 52% | 2024-06-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2024-04-15 | Lost | |
| 1291 | 1000 | 84% | 2024-02-26 | A | Won |
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2024-01-13 | A | Lost |
| 1092 | 1000 | 63% | 2023-09-10 | Won | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-07-11 | Won | |
| 1172 | 1000 | 73% | 2023-07-04 | Lost | |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-05-19 | Won | |
| 962 | 996 | 45% | 2022-12-01 | Lost | |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2022-08-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2022-04-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2021-11-27 | Lost | |
| 890 | 1066 | 27% | 2021-09-06 | Lost | |
| 1037 | 1143 | 35% | 2021-08-22 | Lost | |
| 1006 | 996 | 51% | 2021-04-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2021-02-05 | Lost | |
| 850 | 1017 | 28% | 2021-02-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1030 | 46% | 2021-01-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2020-12-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2020-09-30 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1172 | 27% | 2020-08-16 | Lost | |
| 992 | 992 | 50% | 2020-05-09 | Lost | |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-05-03 | Lost | |
| 1164 | 992 | 73% | 2020-05-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2020-05-03 | Lost | |
| 1102 | 1164 | 41% | 2020-04-11 | Won | |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2020-01-04 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2019-09-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2019-06-30 | Lost | |
| 1009 | 1138 | 32% | 2019-02-23 | Lost | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2019-02-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2018-07-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2018-07-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 992 | 51% | 2018-06-29 | Lost | |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2018-06-28 | Lost | |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2018-06-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2017-11-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2016-09-15 | Lost | |
| 889 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-09-11 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2016-05-01 | Lost | |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2015-09-12 | Won | |
| 951 | 1002 | 43% | 2015-06-01 | Lost | |
| 1435 | 944 | 94% | 2015-01-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2014-12-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 850 | 70% | 2014-07-21 | Lost | |
| 1033 | 1000 | 55% | 2014-07-18 | Won | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2014-05-07 | Lost | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2013-05-03 | Lost | |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2013-04-01 | Won | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2013-02-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2012-02-08 | Lost | |
| 956 | 1044 | 38% | 2012-02-01 | Lost | |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2010-04-09 | Lost | |
| 1020 | 1029 | 49% | 2010-03-15 | Lost | |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2009-07-20 | Lost | |
| 1039 | 986 | 58% | 2009-03-22 | Lost | |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2009-02-22 | Won | |
| 906 | 1000 | 37% | 2008-11-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2008-07-25 | Won | |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2008-03-29 | Won | |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2008-02-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2007-11-01 | Lost | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2007-07-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2007-06-09 | Won |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1022.5 vs 1025.2 has a 49.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).