Winter of Their Discontent
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (Russian): 6
Defender wins (Italian / German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2024-02-18 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2022-08-23 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2022-07-13 | Lost |
| 1009 | 934 | 61% | 2021-12-06 | Lost |
| 958 | 996 | 45% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2020-11-04 | Lost |
| 1054 | 932 | 67% | 2020-05-22 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1005 | 74% | 2018-04-09 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1011 | 85% | 2016-09-24 | Won |
| 1219 | 1104 | 66% | 2015-08-28 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1264 | 20% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1117 | 55% | 2014-05-29 | Lost |
| 1044 | 984 | 59% | 2013-01-09 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1412 | 15% | 2009-08-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1132 | 63% | 2008-10-15 | Won |
| 1010 | 901 | 65% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1219 | 1141 | 61% | 2008-03-14 | Won |
| 920 | 1242 | 14% | 2008-03-07 | Lost |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1100 | 45% | 2007-07-01 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1014 | 63% | 2006-01-12 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1089 | 43% | 2005-12-31 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1081.9 vs 1068.1 has a 51.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).