Winter of Their Discontent
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (Russian): 7
Defender wins (Italian / German): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2024-02-18 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2022-08-23 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1157 | 63% | 2022-07-13 | Lost |
| 1063 | 966 | 64% | 2021-12-06 | Lost |
| 958 | 1028 | 40% | 2021-06-25 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2020-11-04 | Lost |
| 1071 | 922 | 70% | 2020-05-22 | Lost |
| 1238 | 953 | 84% | 2018-04-09 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1011 | 80% | 2016-09-24 | Won |
| 1054 | 1037 | 52% | 2015-08-28 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1203 | 27% | 2015-07-25 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1120 | 49% | 2014-05-29 | Lost |
| 1115 | 983 | 68% | 2013-01-09 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1427 | 14% | 2009-08-12 | Won |
| 1233 | 1133 | 64% | 2008-10-15 | Won |
| 988 | 904 | 62% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1054 | 1190 | 31% | 2008-03-14 | Won |
| 968 | 1253 | 16% | 2008-03-07 | Lost |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1095 | 50% | 2007-07-01 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1028 | 63% | 2006-01-12 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1057 | 47% | 2005-12-31 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1076.2 vs 1071.7 has a 50.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).