Red Don
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (23 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 31
Defender wins (Italian): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1022 | 1022 | 50% | 2025-08-31 | Won |
| 1159 | 780 | 90% | 2025-02-21 | Won |
| 1085 | 987 | 64% | 2022-03-17 | Lost |
| 966 | 1068 | 36% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1022 | 51% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 996 | 996 | 50% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
| 1031 | 1223 | 25% | 2021-02-08 | Won |
| 955 | 985 | 46% | 2020-12-31 | Won |
| 979 | 1223 | 20% | 2019-04-24 | Lost |
| 1178 | 987 | 75% | 2018-06-16 | Lost |
| 1055 | 984 | 60% | 2014-12-05 | Lost |
| 1037 | 969 | 60% | 2014-05-31 | Won |
| 906 | 975 | 40% | 2013-03-23 | Lost |
| 1071 | 986 | 62% | 2012-06-27 | Lost |
| 1071 | 904 | 72% | 2011-06-10 | Lost |
| 1212 | 998 | 77% | 2011-06-09 | Lost |
| 1128 | 906 | 78% | 2010-05-30 | Lost |
| 1002 | 955 | 57% | 2010-05-08 | Won |
| 984 | 963 | 53% | 2009-12-01 | Won |
| 1070 | 1149 | 39% | 2009-01-16 | Won |
| 994 | 907 | 62% | 2007-09-29 | Won |
| 1011 | 1120 | 35% | 2007-08-26 | Won |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1041.8 vs 1006.3 has a 55.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).