Red Don
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (23 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 31
Defender wins (Italian): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2025-08-31 | | Won |
| 1139 | 780 | 89% | 2025-02-21 | | Won |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2022-03-17 | | Lost |
| 944 | 1051 | 35% | 2022-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-05-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2021-05-10 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1219 | 25% | 2021-02-08 | | Won |
| 955 | 985 | 46% | 2020-12-31 | | Won |
| 979 | 1219 | 20% | 2019-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-06-16 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 952 | 64% | 2014-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1063 | 41% | 2014-05-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 975 | 54% | 2013-03-23 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2012-06-27 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2011-06-10 | | Lost |
| 1215 | 997 | 78% | 2011-06-09 | | Lost |
| 1146 | 1000 | 70% | 2010-05-30 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2010-05-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2009-12-01 | | Won |
| 1070 | 1151 | 39% | 2009-01-16 | | Won |
| 994 | 907 | 62% | 2007-09-29 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1120 | 35% | 2007-08-26 | | Won |
| 1018 | 1070 | 43% | | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1046.7 vs 1016 has a 54.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).