The Zebra Mission
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 80 (23 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 43
Defender wins (German): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2025-05-09 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1132 | 30% | 2025-05-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 996 | 51% | 2025-05-02 | | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2023-02-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2023-02-07 | | Won |
| 1170 | 1252 | 38% | 2020-09-06 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2018-04-07 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2015-05-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2015-03-20 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1000 | 56% | 2015-03-08 | | Won |
| 1126 | 992 | 68% | 2014-05-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2014-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 997 | 64% | 2013-07-21 | | Won |
| 1253 | 1019 | 79% | 2011-01-20 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1031 | 51% | 2009-03-17 | | Won |
| 1103 | 904 | 76% | 2008-04-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1214 | 23% | 2008-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 987 | 71% | 2008-02-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2008-02-22 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1343 | 14% | 2008-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1214 | 23% | 2007-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2007-10-05 | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1056.9 vs 1059 has a 49.7% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).