Butchers and Bakers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (32 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 37
Defender wins (German): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 917 | 907 | 51% | 2026-01-29 | | Won |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2023-02-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2023-02-05 | | Won |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-10-20 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-10-22 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-03-16 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1078 | 40% | 2020-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1078 | 40% | 2020-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1075 | 1009 | 59% | 2020-03-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2020-03-10 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2019-12-28 | | Won |
| 907 | 963 | 42% | 2018-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1018 | 47% | 2017-10-06 | | Won |
| 945 | 1031 | 38% | 2017-07-07 | | Lost |
| 951 | 960 | 49% | 2012-10-26 | | Lost |
| 960 | 951 | 51% | 2012-10-13 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1084 | 44% | 2011-12-30 | | Won |
| 1028 | 968 | 59% | 2011-02-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2011-01-23 | | Won |
| 1029 | 996 | 55% | 2010-04-19 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1029 | 45% | 2010-04-19 | | Lost |
| 976 | 1077 | 36% | 2009-12-30 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 984 | 58% | 2009-10-05 | | Won |
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2009-02-11 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1059 | 51% | 2008-11-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 2008-05-25 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2008-01-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2008-01-17 | | Lost |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2008-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2007-12-29 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2007-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1027 | 1036 | 49% | 2007-11-07 | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1008.8 vs 1014 has a 49.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).