The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (Japanese): 14
Defender wins (Chinese): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1083 | 1083 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 964 | 954 | 51% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1143 | 954 | 75% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 1052 | 1037 | 52% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1196 | 46% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1242 | 1154 | 62% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1413 | 1329 | 62% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1062 | 1098 | 45% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1163 | 44% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1242 | 1149 | 63% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 956 | 921 | 55% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 936 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1098 | 1133 | 45% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 936 | 1159 | 22% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1247 | 24% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 1052 | 928 | 67% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1047 | 1064 | 48% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 928 | 1052 | 33% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1158 | 985 | 73% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1158 | 994 | 72% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1186 | 30% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1127 | 30% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 986 | 914 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1152 | 1137 | 52% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1090 | 1118 | 46% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1068.3 vs 1072.8 has a 49.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).