The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (Japanese): 13
Defender wins (Chinese): 17
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 940 | 66% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1120 | 1084 | 55% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 963 | 1032 | 40% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 983 | 1038 | 42% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1217 | 28% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1282 | 1141 | 69% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1407 | 1316 | 63% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1061 | 1086 | 46% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1137 | 47% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1282 | 1145 | 69% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 957 | 921 | 55% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 942 | 938 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1086 | 1132 | 43% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 938 | 1131 | 25% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 938 | 982 | 44% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1254 | 21% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 1061 | 928 | 68% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1044 | 1082 | 45% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 928 | 1061 | 32% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1210 | 982 | 79% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1210 | 976 | 79% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1088 | 42% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 982 | 1133 | 30% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 986 | 914 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1117 | 1118 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1070.1 vs 1071.7 has a 49.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).