Forging Spetsnaz
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 78 (19 on the archive and 59 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 39
Defender wins (Japanese): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1177 | 1152 | 54% | 2020-10-25 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1038 | 54% | 2018-07-21 | Lost |
| 1256 | 989 | 82% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 995 | 933 | 59% | 2016-07-30 | Lost |
| 1180 | 962 | 78% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 1058 | 1098 | 44% | 2015-06-11 | Lost |
| 950 | 976 | 46% | 2014-06-28 | Won |
| 1072 | 1132 | 41% | 2014-04-14 | Lost |
| 920 | 1040 | 33% | 2013-11-20 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1263 | 29% | 2012-10-05 | Won |
| 1146 | 950 | 76% | 2012-03-10 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1253 | 21% | 2012-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-03-24 | Lost |
| 991 | 1174 | 26% | 2011-03-18 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1046 | 47% | 2010-07-17 | Won |
| 1144 | 1027 | 66% | 2010-01-14 | Won |
| 1243 | 1171 | 60% | 2008-02-23 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1065 | 61% | 2008-02-23 | Lost |
| 1090 | 974 | 66% | 2007-11-18 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1080 vs 1064.5 has a 52.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).