Forging Spetsnaz
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 77 (18 on the archive and 59 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 31
Defender wins (Japanese): 46
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1174 | 1151 | 53% | 2020-10-25 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1037 | 54% | 2018-07-21 | Lost |
| 1257 | 990 | 82% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 995 | 947 | 57% | 2016-07-30 | Lost |
| 1207 | 964 | 80% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 1198 | 1079 | 66% | 2015-06-11 | Lost |
| 907 | 976 | 40% | 2014-06-28 | Won |
| 1091 | 1133 | 44% | 2014-04-14 | Lost |
| 920 | 925 | 49% | 2013-11-20 | Lost |
| 1146 | 907 | 80% | 2012-03-10 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1243 | 22% | 2012-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-03-24 | Lost |
| 991 | 1152 | 28% | 2011-03-18 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1039 | 48% | 2010-07-17 | Won |
| 1147 | 1028 | 66% | 2010-01-14 | Won |
| 1141 | 1170 | 46% | 2008-02-23 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1077 | 61% | 2008-02-23 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1056 | 55% | 2007-11-18 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1081.3 vs 1047.6 has a 54.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).