A Dangerous Possibility
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (12 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 23
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1116 | 1116 | 50% | 2025-03-08 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2018-04-24 | Won |
| 1088 | 1074 | 52% | 2016-03-16 | Won |
| 879 | 1058 | 26% | 2015-01-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 927 | 69% | 2013-03-23 | Won |
| 870 | 1098 | 21% | 2011-04-25 | Won |
| 1089 | 1008 | 61% | 2009-02-07 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1030 | 47% | 2009-01-13 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1189 | 28% | 2008-05-15 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1087 | 40% | 2008-02-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 1141 | 29% | 2008-02-02 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1036 | 70% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1037.2 vs 1073.1 has a 44.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).