Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 71 (18 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 28
Defender wins (German): 42
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 978 | 1249 | 17% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 997 | 1046 | 43% | 2024-10-03 | Won |
| 1249 | 1065 | 74% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 824 | 1184 | 11% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 850 | 1009 | 29% | 2023-11-03 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1123 | 63% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 947 | 927 | 53% | 2021-07-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-11-22 | Lost |
| 949 | 1037 | 38% | 2019-06-15 | Won |
| 922 | 930 | 49% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2018-07-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 991 | 47% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 938 | 1158 | 22% | 2018-02-25 | Lost |
| 1098 | 991 | 65% | 2010-11-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1228 | 26% | 2009-03-09 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1015 | 61% | 2009-01-06 | Won |
| 1068 | 1228 | 28% | 2008-08-12 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1132 | 51% | 2008-08-10 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1006.2 vs 1085.6 has a 38.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).