Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (19 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 29
Defender wins (German): 42
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 980 | 1264 | 16% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1037 | 46% | 2024-10-03 | Won |
| 1264 | 1019 | 80% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 824 | 1200 | 10% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 850 | 1009 | 29% | 2023-11-03 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 1344 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 993 | 927 | 59% | 2021-07-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-11-22 | Lost |
| 947 | 1037 | 37% | 2019-06-15 | Won |
| 922 | 930 | 49% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2018-07-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 938 | 1158 | 22% | 2018-02-25 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1012 | 65% | 2010-11-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1233 | 25% | 2009-03-09 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1015 | 58% | 2009-01-06 | Won |
| 1061 | 1165 | 35% | 2008-08-12 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1132 | 51% | 2008-08-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1033.5 vs 1085.2 has a 42.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).