Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (19 on the archive and 54 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 29
Defender wins (German): 43
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 977 | 1263 | 16% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 954 | 1097 | 31% | 2024-10-03 | Won |
| 1263 | 1051 | 77% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 820 | 1113 | 16% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 850 | 1009 | 29% | 2023-11-03 | Lost |
| 1342 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 1342 | 1120 | 78% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 986 | 927 | 58% | 2021-07-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-11-22 | Lost |
| 909 | 1037 | 32% | 2019-06-15 | Won |
| 922 | 930 | 49% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2018-07-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 1025 | 42% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 937 | 1158 | 22% | 2018-02-25 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1025 | 65% | 2010-11-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1233 | 25% | 2009-03-09 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1015 | 63% | 2009-01-06 | Won |
| 1070 | 1215 | 30% | 2008-08-12 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1132 | 51% | 2008-08-10 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1031.9 vs 1089.4 has a 41.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).