Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (17 on the archive and 53 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 28
Defender wins (German): 41
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1014 | 1029 | 48% | 2024-10-03 | Won |
| 1184 | 1028 | 71% | 2024-07-02 | Won |
| 829 | 1200 | 11% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 851 | 1010 | 29% | 2023-11-03 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1107 | 65% | 2023-03-30 | Won |
| 1025 | 927 | 64% | 2021-07-01 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2020-11-22 | Lost |
| 956 | 1037 | 39% | 2019-06-15 | Won |
| 918 | 926 | 49% | 2019-01-01 | Won |
| 712 | 1152 | 7% | 2018-07-12 | Lost |
| 971 | 891 | 61% | 2018-03-03 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1158 | 31% | 2018-02-25 | Lost |
| 1060 | 891 | 73% | 2010-11-19 | Won |
| 1047 | 1228 | 26% | 2009-03-09 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1011 | 55% | 2009-01-06 | Won |
| 985 | 1177 | 25% | 2008-08-12 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1131 | 53% | 2008-08-10 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1004.1 vs 1058.2 has a 42.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).