Second Crack at Caumont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 267 (58 on the archive and 209 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 141
Defender wins (German): 126
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-06-07 | | Lost |
| 976 | 932 | 56% | 2025-05-15 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1192 | 29% | 2025-04-16 | | Lost |
| 1241 | 1196 | 56% | 2024-12-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2024-10-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2024-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1219 | 31% | 2024-06-22 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-08-21 | | Won |
| 1037 | 780 | 81% | 2022-10-20 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1078 | 63% | 2022-10-07 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2022-06-12 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1038 | 74% | 2021-09-11 | | Won |
| 944 | 1051 | 35% | 2021-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2021-01-11 | | Won |
| 1018 | 943 | 61% | 2020-10-31 | | Lost |
| 1052 | 1000 | 57% | 2020-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1009 | 60% | 2020-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2020-05-06 | | Won |
| 1092 | 950 | 69% | 2020-05-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 2020-05-02 | | Lost |
| 1041 | 1098 | 42% | 2020-01-17 | | Won |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2019-01-06 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2018-05-13 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2018-05-12 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2018-04-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2018-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2018-02-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2018-01-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 918 | 78% | 2017-10-06 | | Won |
| 870 | 1218 | 12% | 2017-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2015-08-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2015-07-08 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2014-09-19 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2014-05-16 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1116 | 47% | 2013-11-10 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2013-08-15 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2013-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 970 | 64% | 2012-08-10 | | Lost |
| 936 | 1052 | 34% | 2012-06-30 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2012-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2011-10-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2011-06-24 | | Won |
| 1155 | 1233 | 39% | 2011-06-17 | | Lost |
| 905 | 1012 | 35% | 2009-12-11 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 893 | 67% | 2009-10-24 | | Won |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2009-04-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2009-04-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2009-03-18 | | Lost |
| 961 | 1008 | 43% | 2009-02-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2009-02-12 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1015 | 78% | 2009-02-06 | | Won |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2009-01-13 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1000 | 64% | 2009-01-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2008-10-28 | | Won |
| 1192 | 1061 | 68% | 2008-08-12 | | Won |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2008-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
| 944 | 1086 | 31% | | | Lost |
Attacking (31 wins) average ELOs: 1045.7 vs 1039.3 has a 50.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).