Second Crack at Caumont
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 261 (55 on the archive and 206 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 127
Defender wins (German): 134
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 953 | 949 | 51% | 2025-06-07 | Lost |
| 952 | 1189 | 20% | 2025-04-16 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1141 | 67% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 937 | 971 | 45% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 1381 | 1412 | 46% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1310 | 16% | 2024-06-22 | Lost |
| 903 | 903 | 50% | 2023-08-21 | Won |
| 1116 | 767 | 88% | 2022-10-20 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1063 | 45% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2022-06-12 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1038 | 74% | 2021-09-11 | Won |
| 934 | 1009 | 39% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 1224 | 1092 | 68% | 2021-01-11 | Won |
| 1029 | 928 | 64% | 2020-10-31 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1009 | 62% | 2020-06-17 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1016 | 69% | 2020-05-06 | Won |
| 1091 | 903 | 75% | 2020-05-03 | Won |
| 1003 | 1248 | 20% | 2020-05-02 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1036 | 53% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
| 1009 | 995 | 52% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1310 | 1203 | 65% | 2018-05-13 | Won |
| 1084 | 1029 | 58% | 2018-05-12 | Won |
| 1158 | 1016 | 69% | 2018-04-29 | Won |
| 1005 | 1132 | 32% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1132 | 32% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 969 | 926 | 56% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1219 | 14% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1219 | 39% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 912 | 1158 | 20% | 2015-07-08 | Won |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2014-09-19 | Won |
| 1089 | 1035 | 58% | 2014-05-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 1103 | 40% | 2013-11-10 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1090 | 53% | 2013-08-15 | Lost |
| 952 | 782 | 73% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1066 | 960 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 938 | 1062 | 33% | 2012-06-30 | Won |
| 1036 | 1084 | 43% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1058 | 64% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 1111 | 987 | 67% | 2011-06-24 | Won |
| 1154 | 1228 | 40% | 2011-06-17 | Lost |
| 901 | 1010 | 35% | 2009-12-11 | Lost |
| 920 | 892 | 54% | 2009-10-24 | Won |
| 997 | 968 | 54% | 2009-04-22 | Won |
| 1074 | 1098 | 47% | 2009-04-03 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2009-03-18 | Lost |
| 980 | 1019 | 44% | 2009-02-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 1096 | 44% | 2009-02-12 | Won |
| 1228 | 1010 | 78% | 2009-02-06 | Won |
| 1029 | 959 | 60% | 2009-01-13 | Won |
| 1136 | 1225 | 37% | 2009-01-03 | Won |
| 1120 | 1029 | 63% | 2008-10-28 | Won |
| 1189 | 1022 | 72% | 2008-08-12 | Won |
| 1118 | 1117 | 50% | | Lost |
| 968 | 1117 | 30% | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1059.8 vs 1056.9 has a 50.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).