The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 98 (16 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (Polish): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1113 | 1078 | 55% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 968 | 55% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1127 | 44% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1263 | 947 | 86% | 2018-02-25 | Won |
| 1136 | 1143 | 49% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1327 | 1342 | 48% | 2016-07-09 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1113 | 34% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 920 | 985 | 41% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 984 | 1019 | 45% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 802 | 903 | 36% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1007 | 1129 | 33% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1253 | 30% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1230 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1187 | 1097 | 63% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1035 | 1031 | 51% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1059 vs 1079.6 has a 47.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).