The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (15 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (Polish): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 949 | 949 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1201 | 1057 | 70% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1045 | 44% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1159 | 43% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1283 | 946 | 87% | 2018-02-25 | Won |
| 991 | 1144 | 29% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 1201 | 24% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 932 | 986 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 975 | 1019 | 44% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 801 | 879 | 39% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1008 | 1098 | 37% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1243 | 30% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1235 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1188 | 1045 | 69% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1036 | 1022 | 52% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1042.5 vs 1068.5 has a 46.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).