The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (13 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 53
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1162 | 1057 | 65% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1104 | 1115 | 48% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1143 | 33% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 930 | 986 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 941 | 1020 | 39% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 800 | 998 | 24% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1008 | 1060 | 43% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1243 | 24% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 994 | 1182 | 25% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 853 | 1036 | 26% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1034 | 1059 | 46% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 989.8 vs 1071.4 has a 38.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).