The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (14 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 968 | 953 | 52% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1139 | 1057 | 62% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1127 | 47% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1109 | 42% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 1139 | 31% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 930 | 986 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 916 | 1020 | 35% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 800 | 927 | 32% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1007 | 1065 | 42% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1243 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1185 | 27% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 832 | 1028 | 24% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1035 | 1058 | 47% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 990.9 vs 1067.7 has a 39.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).