The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (13 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 42
Defender wins (Polish): 53
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1248 | 1011 | 80% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1089 | 37% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1136 | 42% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 959 | 1132 | 27% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 930 | 987 | 42% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 920 | 1018 | 36% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 801 | 952 | 30% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1008 | 1058 | 43% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1242 | 23% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1189 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 851 | 1036 | 26% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1029 | 1036 | 49% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 985.3 vs 1062.7 has a 39.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).