The Head of the Mace
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 98 (16 on the archive and 82 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (Polish): 55
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2022-10-16 | Won |
| 1162 | 1057 | 65% | 2022-10-07 | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2021-07-27 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1160 | 41% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1264 | 947 | 86% | 2018-02-25 | Won |
| 982 | 1131 | 30% | 2016-11-08 | Won |
| 1328 | 1343 | 48% | 2016-07-09 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1162 | 28% | 2015-06-25 | Lost |
| 920 | 985 | 41% | 2013-01-27 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1019 | 49% | 2012-03-09 | Lost |
| 802 | 884 | 38% | 2011-12-03 | Won |
| 1007 | 1134 | 32% | 2011-10-03 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1253 | 28% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1174 | 34% | 2009-03-12 | Lost |
| 1188 | 1019 | 73% | 2008-10-01 | Won |
| 1036 | 1031 | 51% | 2008-09-09 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1055.9 vs 1076.8 has a 47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).