Going to New York!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (42 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 31
Defender wins (American): 40
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (Italian): 2
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 939 | 59% | 2025-09-25 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2025-09-08 | | Won |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2025-04-06 | | Won |
| 1291 | 1000 | 84% | 2025-02-14 | A | Won |
| 1000 | 1291 | 16% | 2025-02-05 | A | Lost |
| 1291 | 1000 | 84% | 2025-02-01 | A | Won |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2024-12-01 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 917 | 81% | 2022-08-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2022-07-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2022-04-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 888 | 66% | 2021-11-10 | | Tied |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-07-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2021-06-03 | | Lost |
| 890 | 1004 | 34% | 2021-05-31 | | Lost |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-05-25 | | Won |
| 945 | 925 | 53% | 2021-05-18 | | Won |
| 964 | 982 | 47% | 2021-05-14 | | Won |
| 1187 | 1035 | 71% | 2021-05-12 | | Lost |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2021-05-04 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 1000 | 69% | 2020-12-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2020-07-27 | | Won |
| 1018 | 1000 | 53% | 2020-06-13 | | Won |
| 1431 | 945 | 94% | 2020-04-08 | | Won |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2020-03-30 | | Lost |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2020-03-30 | | Lost |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2020-03-15 | | Lost |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2020-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2019-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1003 | 1000 | 50% | 2017-12-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2016-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 888 | 66% | 2016-04-20 | | Won |
| 888 | 1000 | 34% | 2016-04-17 | | Won |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2015-11-20 | | Lost |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2015-11-20 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2014-06-06 | | Won |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2013-08-24 | | Lost |
| 1344 | 1000 | 88% | 2013-06-25 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2013-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2010-12-22 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2010-02-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2008-09-16 | | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1045.4 vs 1007.2 has a 55.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).