A Pleasant Diversion
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (23 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 15
Defender wins (German): 38
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2025-03-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2023-01-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2023-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2022-12-03 | | Won |
| 967 | 1015 | 43% | 2021-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 967 | 57% | 2019-02-11 | | Won |
| 1123 | 850 | 83% | 2018-03-25 | | Won |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2017-01-14 | | Lost |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2017-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2016-10-04 | | Won |
| 1164 | 1211 | 43% | 2015-09-29 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1055 | 35% | 2014-02-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2013-08-21 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2013-01-09 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-09-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2011-11-20 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2010-04-17 | | Lost |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2010-01-15 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1039 | 48% | 2010-01-12 | | Won |
| 906 | 1152 | 20% | 2009-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2009-08-31 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2009-02-12 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2009-01-03 | | Tied |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1022.5 vs 1023.8 has a 49.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).